Tim Hudak may win a majority, a new poll analysis shows
Despite some PR hiccups, it appears that the lead-up to next month’s provincial election has been relatively kind to Tim Hudak. A new analysis by ThreeHundredEight.com, an election-tracking website run by political reporter Éric Grenier, gives Hudak’s PC party a high probability of winning a majority when voters go to the polls.
Using data on the preferences of likely voters (as opposed to eligible voters), drawn from an Ipsos Reid survey that was released on Friday, Grenier projects that the Progressive Conservatives will win around 39.6 per cent of the vote, which he believes may translate into 55 seats in the provincial legislature. Only 54 seats are needed for a majority. In Grenier’s analysis, the Liberals and the NDP would split the remainder, winning 28 and 24 seats, respectively.
Plenty could change before June 12, but, considering the Liberal party’s scandal-wracked decline over the past three years, it wouldn’t be surprising if Hudak’s name ended up on the premier’s office door.
35 thoughts on “Tim Hudak may win a majority, a new poll analysis shows”
I wouldn’t bet on it. Hudak’s extreme policies have frightened conservatives toward other options. Some will vote as they always have (and scared). Things are weird out there and there’s probably going to be some surprises.
Don’t count on it. In the past few days, every time he’s opened his mouth and been “bold”, he sounds more and more like Mike Harris; firing 100,00 workers (for every public service employee, there’s 10 more people in their family that don’t want to see a pink slip). Those workers come from across the spectrum, including water inspectors (Walkerton, anybody?), teachers, nurses, police/fire, etc. By the time election day rolls around, the choice will be pretty clear for a lot of people.
how in H will the lieberals get 28 seats. are people so stupid they like being raped?
Gawd. When will Timmy find out that firing a lot of people doesn’t help anybody.
We can only hope. Our province is on the verge of collapse. Businesses are getting ready to make big decisions. If Hudak does not win a majority, there will be a stampede of business leaving the province. They have fought hard for a decade to stay viable but one more leftist administration will be the death knell for many.
Hudak has not scared one conservative away, that’s just made up. His policies are anything but “extreme”. Seriously?
There you go again, using your magical powers of all-knowing and mindreading.
Yes, it happens and happens frequently and I’ve personally witnessed the begrudged ship abandoning of a handful of people I’ve known for years who just couldn’t take it anymore.
The plural of anecdote is not data, but you’re the one who said “has not scared one conservative away”. Categorically false.
you guys I gotta good idea pretty please Support and Vote NDP Andrea Horwath is better I hate Tim Hudak and Kathleen Wynne NDP all the way.
Ummm, mind reading? Magical powers of all knowing mind reading? A_W, you seem to have developed the super power of the made up blanket statement. You have de-railed. I have garnered from you recent posts that you’re an NDP operative. I’m not sure whether your support for them is passive or you are a campaign worker, and it really doesn’t matter at this point. I too have that same superpower that you have…….Ready?
The NDP’s extreme policies have frightened moderates toward other options.
Anyone who dis agrees with this, is not credible.
A conservative majority would be the best outcome possible. The next best outcome would be a Liberal Majority. What must be avoided at all costs is any scenario whereby the NDP hold any power whatsoever. Their radical tax and spend approach and incestuous ties to big labor would signal the end of any hope for a rebound in Ontario.
There are some on this forum who attempt to attach the word “extreme” to Tim Hudak. This is absurd. These are the same folks who called Harper radical and extreme and claimed he had a “hidden agenda”. I’m quite sure that only a few radical leftists in Canada would call Harper “extreme”. He has been anything but. He’s been little more than a boring but capable manager of the nations affairs and I suspect Mr Hudak would be the same.
Make no mistake. Ontario could use boring but capable right now. Let’s give some freedom back to the working people. We do not need more wealth redistribution and more power to big labor.
Ontarians (outside the 416 area code) are catching on to this, which is why a majority is in sight for Hudak.
You said he “has not scared one conservative away”. Conservative friends of mine have been. Therefore, your statement is false and/or presumes knowledge you do not have, hence the joke/snide remark.
It’s pretty straight forward, although I’ll stop humouring you with further responses.
And no, old stereotypes do nobody any favours. Policies matter, not what “brand” we like. I’ve never had any life long loyalties and root for who will bring about change that benefits us. I believe it’s important to criticize/hold all accountable (esp.those we support). It’s all pointless otherwise, isn’t it?
John Tory couldn’t keep his pie hole shut and lost that election…..perhaps that will be a lesson for Hudak, but I rather doubt it. Our Political Kleptocrats have immense egos that demand to be heard.
125 Reasons to disregard the Ontario liberals and the Ontario conservatives, but to support the Ontario NDP :
1) Gas Plant Scandal – ($1.1 billion theft and cover-up of our tax dollars) deleting evidence of wrongdoing – 2013- liberals.
Ornge scandal (costing 700 million) – Augusta/Westland lawsuit as it pertains to ORNGE- liberals 2011
Two ministries under an OPP criminal investigation – ORNGE and gas plant scandals – liberals
2) E-Health- with the bonuses paid out to employees when there is a wage freeze supposedly happening – -eHealth scandal (almost 2 billion) – Workers at eHealth suing for not receiving bonuses – (2009-2014) – liberals
3) OLG scandal (millions of dollars) (horse track racing canceled and casino proposal) – 2010-2012 – liberals. Prior loss of 60,000 jobs in the horse racing industry – now attempting to correct this. -Millions spent to remove the “C” from OLG when Ontario Lottery & Gaming Corporation was changed to Ontario Lottery & Gaming – liberals
4) Millions spent to needlessly redesigning our provincial logo – liberals
5) The Green Energy Act. Kowtowing to green energy lobbies– which was declared illegal by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012 – Green Energy Act (20 billion)-Task Force on Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Progress confirmed that McGuinty’s Green Energy Act grossly underestimated the cost to consumers and overestimated the number of new jobs that would be created
-Energy now unaffordable yet we must pay Quebec and some north-eastern States to take our surplus energy
-Electricity rates to rise 42% over five years
-Encouraging farmers to build small-scale solar projects but having no way to connect them to the power grid 2009-2012 -liberals
Caledonia Hydro Line scandal (116 million) – liberals
6) HST -the liberals took the bribe of $ 4.3 billion to earn more money for their wind turbines while inflicting more financial pain on the citizens of ontario
-Eco-Fee Reversal scandal (18 million) -2012- liberals
-Trillium Wind Power and Sky Power Limited lawsuit (500 million)
-Offshore Wind Turbines scandal
Ignoring evidence that wind turbines can cause poor health
-Implemented tire tax, electronics tax, eco fee, health premium (tax), WSIB tax increase, HST, beer surtax – liberals
7) The Health Premium– remember mcquinty saying no more taxes and the liberals hit us with this, the biggest tax grab ever- 2003- liberals
8) The pre – Kindergarten – 2012- liberals
9) The Pan-Am Pan Am games scandal (cost increase from 1.4 to 2.5 billion) – 2012 -liberals. Payout for Pan Am CEO (250 million or 10%) – liberals
10) Metrolinx & the Big Move – 2009- liberals
11) Drive Clean Program – 2005 – conservative act (1988) changed by liberals so it costs more – liberals
12) Coroner’s complex – 2012 -liberals
13) Over 650 new agencies, boards, commissions and entities such as LHIN’s and CCAC’s – 2006 – liberals
14) the teacher solution year in power – liberals
15) The Ontario provincial police raise – every year in power- liberals
16) Healthcare cuts to most used items (not a pet scan is available in northern Ontario) – liberals
17) The proposed 10 cents levy on a litre of gas to subsidize the liberal mismanagement of taxpayer’s monies. – liberals
18) Gift Cards to Toronto residents due to ice storm. which all of Ontario is paying for – 2014 – liberals
19) ontario Northland – cost more to shut it down than it did to run it- sept 28 2012 was the last day the ONTC ran its train service- liberals
20) manufactures are shutting their doors down for good. Copper cliff dairy inc., Cadbury inc., Kellogg’s inc. and Heinz inc. just to name a few – liberals
21) the proposed Ontario Pension Plan – liberals, they want the citizens of Ontario to give them more money to mismanage – and now it is mandatory to contribute which means more money funneled to the liberal party’s follies – 2014 liberals
22) the proposed hospital and the winery grant to attempt to win another bi-election – 2014 – liberals – thankfully they failed
23) Making the hydro users of Ontario pay $220 per hydro user to subsidize the selling off of our hydro to other provinces and the states- 2014 – liberals.
24) Paul Martin- yes that Paul Martin of CSL and EI ripoffs – 2014 – liberals
25) Ontario added one public sector job for every two private sector jobs lost last month. Even as the province shed a net 39,000 positions in December — pretty much wiping out all employment gains for the year — the public sector work force grew by 13,000 jobs over that same
one-month period, the Stats Canada Labour Force Survey revealed April 24/2014 – liberals
26) Delisting eye exams, physiotherapy, chiropractic care, diabetes strips etc. (Increasing wait time for cataract surgery. No longer covered for eye exams yet taxpayers paying for sex changes. reducing diabetes strip test coverage in half through OHIP. coverage on physio therapy has been reduce or restricted). – liberals
27) 4 Billion dollars they added to the Debt Retirement Balance of Hydro after hiding the fact for 6 years, they were caught out and still no shame-and we are still paying for a debt that was to ended in 2012- liberals
29) “The Rural Economic Development program which gave a million bucks to a bakery in Vaughan. – liberals
30) the over hiring of public servants to increase voter base and to hide the true unemployment numbers Ontario has – 2013 – liberals
31) Cutting funding for the Centre of Forensic Sciences, a highly skilled and world-renowned task force.
“The employees at the Centre of Forensic Sciences now facing unemployment do not grow on trees. They are highly educated in computer sciences, mathematics and criminology, and SKILLED IN RETRIEVING DATA FROM FILES THAT HAVE BEEN ERASED OR DELETED from the electronic devices of suspected criminals. They can venture into cyberspace and restore deleted e-mails and Internet chat logs that will assist police in tracking criminals. “McGuinty defunded the Centre for Forensic Sciences” tossing a world-renowned police team specializing in retrieving deleted computer files out of work two months before he resigned – liberals
32) The Drummond Report the liberals ignored the advice of their “hired” consultant, who tried to show them the error of their ways, sending spending spiraling out of control. – 2012 liberal’s profit
33) cuts to community start up and maintenance benefit for Ontario disability support program recipient – 2012 liberals
34) restricting the special diet benefit for Ontario disability support program recipient – 2010 and 2006 liberals
35) Inflation not kept up for ontario disability support program recipients since 1995 – liberals and conservatives
36) cuts to winter clothing allowance for Ontario disability support program recipients – conservatives 1999
37) cuts to bus pass coverage for volunteering for those on Ontario disability support program – 1999 conservatives
38) cuts to orthopaedic footwear coverage for Ontario disability support program recipient – liberals 2010
39) freeze to minimum wages or minimum wage not kept up since 1995 – conservatives and liberals
40) cuts to child tax credit – conservatives 1995
41) the proposal of having two different levels of minimum wage. One for inexperience at 3/4 of the present minimum then there’d be the present minimum wage itself right now for experienced workers – conservatives
42) the proposal of getting rid of the special diet allowance all together for ODSP recipient – 2013 liberals
43) the proposal of restricting ODSP qualification to those with serious disabilities only – 2013 conservatives
44) proposal of a food card stamp for those on OW if they can’t find a job – conservatives 2013
45) Auto Insurance scandal – liberals
46)Two of three convicted in the cleaning kick-back scandal in Wynne’s ministry – liberals
47) Lobbyist scandal (two multi-million dollar scandals) – liberals
48) CancerCare Ontario scandal (millions of dollars) – liberals
49) Slush Fund scandal (32 million) – liberals
50) Niagara Falls Commission scandal – liberals
51) Ontario Power Generation scandal – liberals
52) Children’s Aid Society scandal – liberals
53) Nanticoke Coal Power Plant Shutdown scandal – liberals
54) G20 Secretly Approved Police Power scandal, the ontario liberals refusing public inquiry into G20 fiasco. – liberals
(Mean while the federal conservatives goes on to waste 2 billion dollars on a wall décor.)
55) Foreign Scholarships scandal (our students pay the highest tuition in -Canada – while foreign students get free university educations) – liberals
56) Samsung scandal (sole-sourcing) – liberals
57) MPAC scandal (over and under-valuation of properties) – liberals
58) Chemotherapy Dosage scandal – liberals
59) Cement company lawsuit (275 million) – liberals
60) Quarry outside Hamilton was scuttled for political reasons – liberals
61) School bus service lawsuit – liberals
62) Elliot Lake Collapse lawsuits (two lives lost due to recovery delays) – liberals
63) Ontario Medical Association lawsuits – applied to Superior Court alleging -McGuinty not negotiating in “good faith” – liberals
64) Breast Screening scandal (ensuing lawsuits due to thousands of misread mammograms, one life lost) – liberals
65) Class-action lawsuit for autism funding cancellation – liberals
66) Over 300,000 new public servants many of whom, are on the sunshine list – liberals
67) Public sector employment in health care increased by 39% – liberals
68) Public sector employment in social services increased by 39% – liberals
69) Public sector employment in education increased by 34%-liberals
70) Paying more Liberal taxes only to receive fewer services as taxes now being spent to pay the salaries and perks of newly-assigned, Liberal-friendly public servants
71) Gutted our manufacturing base (job growth across Canada except in Ontario) – liberals
72) Nearly one million Ontarians now out of work – liberals and conservatives
73) Increased spending by 80% while our economy grew by only 9% – liberals
74) More than doubled our debt to 288 billion and Running a 11.3 billion annual deficit – liberals
75) Legal rights of Ontarians disregarded relative to the Caledonia-Mohawk matter – liberals
76) Debt servicing costs will rise from 11.4 billion today to 14.5 billion once the debt exceeds 300 billion by 2017-18 – liberals
77) Interest payments on our debt now the third largest budget expenditure after health and education – liberals
77) Tax collectors getting 45,000.00 severance packages for switching job titles from provincial to federal – liberals
78) Pharmacy war – liberals
79) Increased smart meter, electricity, hydro, tuition and car insurance costs – liberals
80) Failing grade on ADHD education – liberals
81) Ranking the lowest of all provinces for fiscal performance – liberals and conservatives
82) Wait time for nursing home bed tripled – liberals and conservatives
83) Failure to disclose elevated radiation levels – liberals and conservatives
84) OES missed its collection and recycling targets by 59% – liberals and conservatives
85) Not correcting the foreign ownership of our beer market – liberals and conservatives
86) Acceptance of garbage striker extortion – liberals and conservatives
87) Harassing labour inspectors – liberals and conservatives
88) Imposing blood alcohol rules that punish people who are not impaired – liberals
89) Public utilities donating to Liberals
90) Voting to cover up the Niagara Parks Commission scandal – liberals
91) Emergency room wait times not meeting provincial targets – liberals and conservatives
92) Put on notice by Standard and Poor, credit rating downgraded, under a very serious credit watch – liberals and conservatives
93) Have-not province for the first time in Canadian history – liberals
94) Borrowing more debt than any province except NB – liberals
95) Dramatic cuts in health care services in schools – liberals
96) Nurses getting bonuses despite a wage freeze – liberals
97) Insufficient senior homecare services – liberals
98) Failing grade of Family Responsibility Office – liberals and conservatives
99) Abstained from vote to investigate CBC expenses – liberals and conservatives
100) Cash kickback scheme involving government cleaning contracts which ended with the conviction of Liberal officials
101) Talked about a two-year freeze on wages for public sector while previously giving the OPP a 5% wage increase – the OPP received another raise of over 8% in January, 2014 – liberals
102) Laid up in US hospital beds as no beds available in Ontario – liberals and conservatives
103) Giving those who hire only newcomers a 10,000.00 tax credit – liberals
104) Third highest user of food banks – liberals and conservatives
105) Announced pay freezes knowing that 38,000 were getting a 3% salary increase after the election – liberals
106) Hiding hospital errors from the public – liberals and conservatives
107) Teachers skipping classes to assist with anti-Conservative campaign
108) Failing grade in northern forestry management – liberals
109) Almost 40 C. difficile deaths to date – liberals
110) Loss of 6,500 cancer patient health records – liberals
111) Highest rent increase rate in years – liberals and conservatives
112) Liam denied eye care that another child is receiving under OHIP – liberals
113) Ontarians pleading for their lives or dying because they aren’t getting the health care they need – liberals and conservatives
114) Lady with a brain tumor denied help to cover costs which costs are covered in Manitoba – liberals
115) Presto – liberals
116) Ring of Fire Cleaning kick-back scheme that ended with the conviction of three Liberal officials
117) A pedophile was developing the Liberal’s sex education curriculum
118) Muslim prayers allowed in our publicly-funded school system while the -Lord’s Prayer has been banned – liberals
119) the liberals have mortgaged the legislature building
120) Education minister signing off on documents that she doesn’t even read – liberals
121) Health care might be privatized if Hudak wins meaning we would all have to pay a fee to see a doctor – conservatives 2014
122) Hudak may intend to scrap ODSP and have it limited to those with serious disability – conservatives 2014
123) Hudak may end up merging ODSP into ow meaning folks on ODSP are gonna be forced to work and get training. – conservatives 2014
124) Hudak’s proposal makes no sense in regards to creating a million jobs but requires him to get rid of 100,000 jobs. – conservatives 2014
125) Hudak is gonna over all try to make us live into US style if he wins. – conservatives 2014
I have never, in my life, seen so much absolute unbridled RAGE towards a governing party.
Seniors whose entire pension cheque goes for just electricity. Parents who have lost programs for autistic children. People abandoning their homes because of health problems associated with industrial wind turbines being placed too close to their houses. Working families who now pay MORE for their hydro bill than their mortgage each month. People who are now unemployed because the companies they worked for closed up shop and moved to New York for cheaper power rates and lower costs to do business.
The Liberals STOLE 1.1 billion dollars of taxpayer money to win the last election and we’re just now learning how deep the layers of corruption have gone to cover it up. Everywhere I go, people are demanding that Dalton McGuinty, Kathleen Wynne and the rest of the cabinet ministers be charged and sent to prison.
If we don’t get in a government that actually cares about this province as soon as possible – like the Ontario N.D.P. – we will be sunk even lower than what we already are.
I am supremely ticked off that Many people in the next generation are going to have to pay for the incompetence and corruption of this Liberal and conservative government.
The LPO and OPCP are traitors to this country and to the citizens of Ontario. I can’t think of anything worse to say about them than that.
A vote for hudak is a vote for making us live in US style
Like a check mark for NDP
A vote for libs or cons is a vote for the same old BS
Some of his own conservatives representatives (MPP) hates him
What part of “that’s just made up” don’t you get
You mean well SH!T
Anyone who refuses to support NDP is an !D!OT
I have no loyalty to a “brand”. I have loyalty to lower taxes and smaller government. A smaller government is by definition, one that is less involved in my life and that is ALWAYS a good thing.
I have dozens of friends who are embarrassed that they ever voted liberal. Most are voting conservative this election and the funny part about it is, they are the most EAGER to do so….the feel betrayed and want to make it right.
Very open minded and inclusive!
You know the U.S Prez is a socialist right?
Of course but Barak’s meaning of a socialist is no where near Ontario’s meaning of a socialist
I guess I don’t understand your name. You seem to be against poverty, yet socialism is equal poverty for all, with an elite political overlord class ruling us.
Lower taxes, smaller government? You can have that tomorrow. Move to the US. Oh, and by the way, enjoy losing your home and life savings should you have a major medical event.
Are there opportunities here for efficiency… absolutely. But to chop 100,000 public service jobs just doesn’t cut it. Canada is a country with a social conscience. Some of these “bureacrats” are actively involved in caring for and nurturing the less fortunate. if I wanted to live in a US style environment, I would move there. I don’t and therefore will note be voting for Hudak.
No, I don’t want to move to the U.S. I want to stay right here and fight to change the wealth redistribution culture that dominates Ontario. You see, I can have lower taxes and smaller government if I move to Alberta too…….are you saying that if I get sick in Alberta the evil mean capitalist bloodsuckers will swoop in and pick at my carcass???
Stop with your fear mongering. Big government does not mean safety and security. That’s an illusion. It only means a loss of freedom.
I’m sick with Liberal. it’s enough. let’s go with PC.
I agree with Nytetime, he’s a Harris clone. Shrink public sectors by attrition and electronics; do NOT use Accenture. Combine OW and ODSP at grave risk of judicial penalty under the AODA. Cancel the AODA under catastrophic penalties. Up OW and ODSP allowances so the coin hits the streets where it boosts Ontario. You have four weeks.
Tim Hudak….just another Mike Harris….money first, people last….
Liberal party is crazy and harassing Tim Hudak so actually take time and look into it. Hudak is trying to create jobs and has a good plan that isn’t unrealistic; and Liberal Party not to forget Kathleen Wynne has a reputation of such evil politics and hate advertisements which shows political corruption.
Kathleen Wynne is brain washing us with hate
advertisements and corrupt politics so let’s just forget about that and
look at the facts. Hudak I think has a good plan to improve the economy
while Kathleen Wynne argues with his ideas and frames him for “making
errors”,”hating children”, “Hating families”. Tim Hudak has a good plan
to increase the jobs and improve the economy since it’s getting pretty
bad in Ontario so we have to trust him; because his plan really isn’t
bad even if it’s “a math error” which came straight from the Liberal
Party through a hate advertisement to brainwash us even though it’s a
All advertisements were formed by the Liberal Party and you’ll notice that they are full of blatant lies.
Looks like som1 is being brainwashed by those liberal hate advertisements. Swear to god if Kathleen Wynne gets elected because of faulty advertisements I lose ALL hope for Ontario.
For anyone on ODSP or OW, who hasn’t voted yet, both Liberal and PC want to do away with us completely!!!!! VOTE NDP!!!!! Andrea Horwath is the only one who will not put us out on the street – LITERALLY HOMELESS THIS TIME!!!!
Liberal and PC want us on the street. Tim Hudak would have those of us that – HE CONSIDERS TO BE NOT DISABLED, to be forced to work FULL TIME, at one of his imaginary jobs!
Liberal party??? Kathleen Wynne doesn’t even have a plan for us! She’s the one who, this year, only a little while ago, had the moving allowance cut off completely!!!!
If you are an ODSP recipient, and you don’t vote NDP or you don’t vote at all, you are facing financial ruin!!! If you need your disability Pension, as I do, YOU MUST VOTE TODAY… AND YOU MUST VOTE NDP!!!
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