New Toronto election poll: good news for Olivia Chow, meh news for Rob Ford, bad news for John Tory
This morning, the media is piling onto the latest Forum Research poll that shows mayor Rob Ford‘s approval rating slipping from 47 to 43 per cent. In terms of numbers that might actually affect the municipal election, though, the real story here lies in the results of the pollster’s mayoral fantasy scenarios.
In a showdown between just the three major declared candidates, Ford clocks in with a solid 35 per cent, as does Karen Stintz. David Soknacki brings up the rear with 16 per cent. Throw Olivia Chow into the mix, and the race looks utterly different. The downtown MP racks up an impressive 41 per cent, while Ford’s number remains basically unchanged at 34 per cent, with Stintz at 11, Soknacki at five, and nine per cent undecided.
Now, toss in John Tory. The breakdown shows that Ford still has a big chunk of unwavering support. Most of Tory’s votes would not be siphoned off the mayor, as many have predicted. Instead, his votes would come from the other candidates: Chow would win with 35 per cent, Ford would nab 30 per cent, Tory 22 per cent, Stintz six, Soknacki three. Five per cent of voters would be undecided. Perhaps the most interesting fantasy scenario is a Chow-free race that includes Tory: Ford wins with 33 per cent, while Tory languishes behind at 28. Stintz gets 17, Soknacki eight, with 14 per cent undecided.
This indicates that Tory is facing an uphill battle on the right. The former PC leader, who is widely expected to declare his candidacy this month, will need to have one major goal for the early months of the campaign: eat away at Ford’s base. Sure, 57 per cent say they will not vote for Ford, but 37 say they would. Any way you slice it, Ford has a solid 30-point bedrock that seems immovable. In a crowded field, that may be just enough to tip him back into the mayor’s office.
It’s worth noting that this poll was conducted last week, after Ford’s antics in Vancouver, but before the mayor’s double slight to the city’s LGBT community (a tantrum over the Pride flag flying at city hall, and his statement that he’d never attend Pride). The latter episodes may change some of the mayor’s approval numbers, but, as Edward Keenan observes on The Grid’s website, Ford’s dubious statements about Pride smack of election strategy, and could be the mayor’s way of shoring up that 30 per cent by playing on certain voters’ misgivings about the gay community.
The Forum Research poll tends to show how Torontonians “are feeling about what’s happened in the last week,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told CTV news. “It’s a reminder that people tend to underestimate [Ford].”
(Images: Tory: OCOC; Stinz: Facebook/Karen Stintz; Ford: Christopher Drost; Soknacki: soknacki.com; Chow: Andrew Rusk)
. The latter episodes may change some of the mayor's approval numbers, but, as Edward Keenan observes on The Grid's website, Ford's dubious statements about Pride smack of election strategy, and could be the mayor's way of shoring up that 30 per cent by playing on certain voters’ misgivings about the gay community.
The Forum Research poll tends to show how Torontonians "are feeling about what's happened in the last week," Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told CTV news. "It's a reminder that people tend to underestimate [Ford]."
(Images: Tory: OCOC; Stinz: Facebook/Karen Stintz; Ford: Christopher Drost; Soknacki: soknacki.com; Chow: Andrew Rusk)){kind=link}
If we re-elect this bozo after everything that’s come out about him, we deserve all the scorn and ridicule that will be heaped upon us from every corner of the globe.
Detroit has been scorned and ridiculed. Ford will keep us from becoming like them.
Yes, we will never become the hub of the US auto industry. For how many decades will we see a tax increase directly related to the Scarborough Subway..?
Better a subway than wasting money on LRTs. Glorified streetcars, lipstick on a 1910 trolley.
Our city is chocked full of idiot voters who do not like smart, sophisticated politicians. Instead, people prefer individuals who are “just like them,” which is very sad. I guess there are more stupid, trashy people living here than smart, normal people, because, well, look who we bring into office? Can’t we elect someone who has some finishing school polish without thinking that he/she is “too elite” or too “old guard?” Because it’s NOT about that. And sophistication =/= “old guard,” anyway. Only those who have little exposure to culture think that way. I guess that’s most people here. :(
Better to waste money on a subway to nowhere that serves less people while costing more? LRTs are not streetcars anymore than subway trains are.
You’re not quoting Sarah Palin on purpose? If wasting money looks like securing funding and moving forward on a well researched project, nothing I can do to help you. LRT seems to be good enough for Eglinton, Finch and Sheppard East.
I’m concerned Tory’s strategy could be to move to the left and take the Olivia Chow vote.
Where the subway goes, the people will follow.
LRTs are not good enough anywhere.
What if Tory is in and Chow is not? Those numbers I would love to see.
You’ve clearly never been on the Sheppard subway. You know, the one they close early due to non-use.
They are good enough for the most transit developed cities in the world.
What would happen if a real monkey wrench is thrown into the mix and a so called ‘fringe’ candidate became an established grassroots candidate and achieved a modest five percent of the vote that pollsters didn’t figure into their plans?
So you’re all for Ford for his fiscal ‘cough’ restraint (see “votes against kids food programs: Ford, Rob”), except for where it comes to subways, where he will up taxes for 30+ years for 3 stops. Makes sense.
I agree with you on Sheppard. The line is too short so does not really go anywhere. It was Lastman’s vanity project. Of course the University extension to Vaughn is a liberal vanity project. Way over budget and should not have been approved.
Moron.
San Paulo and Mumbai have found a better option. 1/10 the cost of subways but all of the advantages. 1/2 of the cost of LRTs and none of the disadvantages.
We’ll I guess this is your lucky day. “Perhaps the most interesting fantasy scenario is a Chow-free race that
includes Tory: Ford wins with 33 per cent, while Tory languishes behind
at 28. Stintz gets 17, Soknacki eight, with 14 per cent undecided.”
I’m looking at Richard Underhill
A Sax Player for the Tax Payer
I say crap polls unless the data is published. You could be making this up, Toronto Life! Also, what about the much-feared Denzil Minion-Wong? Why was his name not on the list?
I think it’s interesting that a new challenger is making his appearance felt. Matt Mernagh, very well known to those of us who work in medical marijuana advocacy, has put his hat into the municipal ring, and is running a credible issues based campaign that has quickly taken him from the realm of the many fringe candidates and right up to the top of the most credible – and beyond.- the fringe.. Mernagh is now presenting a true alternative, and I feel the more voters that hear his message,the more of a splash he will make on the municipal scene. He’s doing a great job in getting people excited about – and engaged with – politics!
WHERE IS RICHARD UNDERHILL?
Totonto does not want Ford. Etobicoke Scarborough and North York want Ford. If you live in Toronto demand the Ontario government de amalgemate GTA. Let the suburbs have their Jester. 4 more years of suburban rule will kill this city.
Ahh thanks I see that now….so much for going to get a coffee in the middle of reading this. Out of all the polls I have read, these numbers seem pretty spot on, my figuring is that Ford is a little less strong but not much.
Peggy, you don’t understand Detroit or what happened there at all. Don’t mention things you can’t describe. Just say: “Me like Ford”, finish eating your banana, and go back to sleep.
Ouch. You don’t have to be rude, because you disagree with someone’s opinion. Is it not possible for someone to like the fiscal conservative approach to municipal politics without believing that the Mayor is above all this or to think that people who don’t want tax increases year-over-year have a brain in their head?
Totally agree Peggy. That little extension took 4 long years and for what? But at least with Lastman and now with Ford there is progress being made. The city is so underdeveloped on the transportation side it’s criminal. Imagine what King Street is going to look like once Vaughan allows all those condo towers and then wants to close off the road except to busses and bikes. Some forethought might have seen a relief line there to assist with the over-development…
Hi Cynthia,
Would be great to have a more polished candidate running for Mayor of Toronto, however they were not any such candidates in the last election and I’m not sure what this election is going to bring out. But just because someone speaks well, or presents themselves well, does not make them qualified to run the city.
I’ll take a “stupid trashy” person who knows how to save money and keep Toronto clean and safe over a sophisticated figurehead who likes to spend, spend, spend.
Now if we could get both qualities in one person… Then it’s a different story altogether.
I understand Detroit far better than you can imagine. You are a typical socialist. When you cannot debate with facts, you resort to childish retorts.
It’s just like George Bush winning a 2nd term in the the states…
Yup, Ford is brash, blunt and puts his foot in his mouth which is hard to do at 300 lbs. With that being said, I do not see any other fiscal conservative on the scene who could win. Given a choice between Chow and Ford, I will go with Ford.
Mernagh for Mayor!
Matt Mernagh is a great Mayor candidate please consider including him in the next poll you guys do. Great guy, I think he is the perfect candidate for Toronto’s Mayor.
I’m very disappointed in the results for Soknacki in this poll, considering IMO he’s the only one who so far has even demonstrated an inkling of a real plan for the City, filled with real facts.
As for those who have not even entered the running yet… Olivia Chow will not have my vote. I still live in her one time ward and aside from photo-ops she did nothing for my neighbourhood. Tory comes with some baggage but far, FAR less than the sitting Mayor and none of it would leave him unfit to serve so I feel he might be my other choice.
I just don’t understand these pollster results. Something stinks
Seriously Cynthia? You think “finishing school” is what Toronto needs? I only know one guy who went to finishing school. He turned out to be a closet coke-head who loved hookers. So … is this what we need? You sound like you really want the GQ version of Mayor. When in reality, looks matter not when you can’t do your job!! Capitalism seeps into everything. Please for the love of the middle class, think about what you just wrote. Judgey. Or am I not cultured enough to know what your point is?
Can you please explain your comment peggy?
What is there to explain?
Very hard to imagine that John Tory wants to play pinata in another election where he’s not likely to win. How many defeats can a person take?
If Rob Ford’s enduring support tells us anything, it’s that his supporters want a mayor who won’t be pushed around by noisy minorities or the free-spending lefty fruitloops on city council. Tory doesn’t fit that picture at all. He’s a go-along-get-along conservative.
Dianna, it’s NOT about looks! It’s attitude, too. The current mayor does not have that. And what’s wrong with being “elite” in the first place (if you think certain people are “elite”)? I’d rather have someone who supports arts and culture, in addition to good transportation and services than someone who goes around smoking pot and drinking. Rob Ford is what, 45? His behaviour is something I’d expect from a 19 or 20 year old undergrad. He’s a husband and father. What kind of example is he giving?
In case anyone’s wondering how Ford won his second term, this is how. Presented with a potential Ford-beater, an anti-Ford voter sulks angrily and picks anyone else.
Spoiler: there’s never good news for John Tory.
How is Ford keeping Toronto from becoming Detroit?
Seems like a pretty grandiose statement, you don’t think it deserves any explanation?
Yes, be like Quebec, separation and divorce is the way to solve everything…. While you’re at it, let’s draw the line between North and South of Bloor… spanks..
So much hate for John Tory yet he’s the most accomplished individual outside of politics. interesting indeed. When we actually pull our heads out of our behinds, maybe we’ll elect a worldly and successful leader. Until then… we’ll get the Mayor we deserve – Chow OR Ford. What a joke.
Sounds like a plan.
lmao.way to funnyyy
I couldn’t agree with you more about Ford. He needs to get out. My issue with him, is that he feels he is elite and thus can do whatever he wants though he makes policy everyday that marginalizes the same thing by others.
Me thinks you need to look up the meaning of the word: Elite
I think entitled is a better adjective.
Ford is entitled … wow … you’re more out to lunch than I thought.
Excuse me? His behaviour is similar to that of Justin Bieber. Would you say that Justin Bieber is elitist? I think not!
Right! Then let Cabbagetown regain its independence! And Yorkville! And Parkdale! Let’s all live in tiny villages where everyone have the same color, the same accent and the same culture. Let’s trash Unity in Diversity and replace it by Division in Mediocrity. Let’s go back to the 19th Century and its Dickensian Good Old Days. Awesome! #HatersGonnaHate
Agreed, but it’s partially his fault. He is not very good at promoting himself to the public. It’s always been a weakness. Too bad, because I think he’s fantastic.
I am sorry. Are you saying Ford ISN’T entitled??? If so, then Cynthia is not the one out to lunch.
How dramatic. The reality is that there is a division between the suburbs and the city. They voted differently and they have different priorities particularily when it comes to transportation. Most people from the suburbs view the city as a toilet and will come here to work and party. But those of us who live here are left breathing the car fumes and wading throgh high traffic. Any discussion about these issues are turned into an us against them war of words. The current Mayor thrives on it and is planning to camapaign on it. I would much prefer we shake hands and move on than spend 4 more years in a relationship based on animosity
you wait … there will be a tell all book about Olivia Chow and Jack Layton it is just a matter of time
Ford has been a real jerk from start to (hopefully) finish. He was elected on a bunch of empty promises and platitudes. A boozing bozo. He has no respect for himself, never mind the taxpayer.
re-read my friend…. Cynthia thinks Toronto need some elitism at city hall … or is it entitlement?? As though there’s not enough of that.
Eric, did you take into account that I’m actually looking for someone of quality to run over someone who doles out tired dogmatic replies with little or no substance? I refuse to vote for anyone on just the basis of popularity and spite
february 28, 2012…olivia chow quote.. “the average canadian is not capable of making a rational decision”… only those who aspire to be average can vote for this elitist..
toronto life has joined torstar, cbc , yahoo et al..in a puerile form of sub-journalism by little people trying to influence little minds.. they perpetuate the policy and enhance the notion of “us”…by creating an antagonistic and dangerous “them”
I’m politically dead centre, and I live in North York (shocking, I know). I’ve voted for candidates from all parties over the years. I’m not myopic like Ford Nation. I didn’t vote for Ford, but I would strongly consider voting for a DIFFERENT conservative this time around (even Tory) because it IS a vote against Ford, his family and his criminal cronies while also a vote FOR someone who more or less shares his side of the political spectrum (which I can get behind, SOMEWHAT, at this stage of the game), only without all the degenerate behaviour, obstructionist tactics and infantile entitlement. And the drugs. That vote is not to take votes away from the other candidates, as this article/poll seems to suggest. It’s to take one from Ford. Frankly, though, it’s all I can do to even BOTHER to vote anymore, at any level. It’s the same old bullshit; we’re just privy to a lot more of it than we were back in the days when Frank magazine had better inside scoops than the mainstream media. Furthermore, four more years of Ford will be FOUR MORE YEARS OF NOTHING GETTING ACCOMPLISHED, only worse than it is now because everyone will just dig in their heels even harder. This town . . .
But Urban Daddy, Rob Ford hasn’t actually saved us any more money than any of his predecessors. Unless you believe his grossly-inflated, oft-repeated (ad nauseam) and constantly debunked “billions dollars” line. Which is sounds like you do . . . Amazing what we’ll put up with out of a candidate simply because we believe the perception that he’s saving us money (when he’s generally not), instead of replacing him with someone else simply to see what they can do, hopefully without bringing heaps of embarrassment on to the entire country. At this point, ANYTHING is better than what we’ve got. Ford’s a typical conservative in the sense that he plays well to a simple-minded base of enablers who believe that cuts, cuts, cuts and nothing but cuts are somehow not detrimental to the long-term development of a massive city, and then when he’s ousted and his successors have to correct for all the damage he’s done, he can sit back on his fat ass and point fingers at all the spending, lazily gloating that HE never would’ve done that to the precious taxpayers he claims to care so much about while shoving all manner of drugs into his system and elitist, entitled behaviour in their faces and claiming that’s not exactly what it is,
Rob Ford is an entitled elitist, but his zombie followers believe him when he claims only others are that way and not him, sad.
It’s amazing to me that you basically agree with Cynthia but COMPLETELY seem to be misrepresenting her use of the words elitist and entitled. You say Ford should go, but you seem to act just like him on this front.
Anyone who listens to Tory’s radio show knows he’s promoting himself better to the public right now than ANY other candidate, and he’s got the most far-reaching platform from which to do it, which is the prime reason he hasn’t had to announce his candidacy yet. The chatter may sometimes be about mundane things in the news, as it is all ALL talk radio shows, but that’s where Tory can simply demonstrate communication and engagement skills that Ford completely lacks, while other segments of the show — his round table discussions and that last bit where callers who love him AND hate him can ask him to expound on any of the day’s topics — are perfect opportunities for him to put his eventual campaign platform front and centre. Best of all, he never comes off as elitist or entitled the way that big baby Ford does.
In spite of that, Eric still has a point. This kind of vote splitting, no matter how altruistically any individual may be motivated, is what got scum like Ford into office in the first place. It will be a trick to make sure we get him out this time around, to eliminate the chance of him getting back in practically by default and giving us four more years of childish, entitled behaviour that wastes taxpayer money and a virtually complete lack of progress we so desperately need right now.
Better than a drug addict who openly consorts with the criminals he’s supposed to be siding against, but hey, as long as the filth you elected CLAIMS he’s saving you a few bucks (no, wait, a “billion” bucks – LOLOLOLOL)” you’ll turn a blind eye to ANYTHING.
One of Ford’s HUGE problems isn’t that he won’t be pushed around, it’s that he won’t work WITH anyone at all! It’s all about him. Poor little persecuted everyday Joe (entitled, unearned millionaire) who just wants to save his fellow working Joes a few bucks (but not really, and only insomuch as it plays well to his unwashed supporters) if they’ll only turn a blind eye to his degenerate behaviour. Tory’s not perfect, but I’d rather have a conservative in power that takes his fingers out of his ears and stops shouting “La La La La” for more than a few seconds very year.
You’re preaching to the choir, my friend. Tory will more than likely get my vote. Even before there was the slightest sign that he would run for mayor, his show showcased his ability to be a socially responsible fiscal conservative. Something Rob always claimed to be, but honestly, I never saw.
what is the better option? petticab?
What a crock of Sh–! We had a mayor so sophisticated he boasted a Harvard Degree and Magna Cum Laude to boot! He did F—All for this city his promises of transparency were about as thick as he was. Now the city wants Ford out but lets take a close look behind our reasoning, Councillors nor the city of Toronto could nail Him ideologically inside City Hall….However outside they caught him being a bafoon. So yes he’s gotta go.
But you are saying lets vote in a smart polished turd…Guaranteed once they are in they will stink like fresh sewage PERIOD!
My advice, take all the politicians, put them on a nice cruise ship, have them pilot it to the middle of the ocean (preferably over the Mariana Trench) and sink the fucking thing! Now you got my vote!
ANY PUBLICITY IS GOOD PUBLICITY…. right?
Ford made us famous. Everybody knows about our coke addicted, overweight & loud mayor…
They also know all Canadians are nice…
Little did the world know that Canadians are STUPID enough to vote for Ford…
Nice & Stupid… Great combo
No excuse there.
Charlie Sheen should take Ford as an apprentice. At least Ford will lose weight.
I have no idea how they can poll people at this point and feel there is any accuracy to them. First off we do not even know if Chow is running if she does no one has a clue what her platform will be same goes for Tory. Yet they conduct these polls without it being even possible for voters to be informed on who they would support or at least the voters who need to be informed prior to making a decision. Guess I know now why so many polls end up being very inaccurate after an actual election.
I read the same exact “quote” on CBC dot ca, by user “thedingo8” (no relation, I’m sure).
Problem: Olivia Chow never said that.
http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=5405608&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=1
In fact, nobody ever used that exact phrase online until you did. Google gave four hits for it: The one on CBC and four on T-Life. Are F*** Nation trolls so dense as to not know House of Commons committee minutes are available online?
It would seem so.
lol..maybe i had the date wrong buyt that is the wrong committee …she said it and all of your feigned outage and self importance cant change the fact… leftards are so fkn stupid.
You are a liar. Anyone who can use a search engine can confirm in roughly thirty seconds. Sorry to spoil this particular sock puppet account for you, though I’m sure you have dozens more to slip into.
My only question is if you’re one of the paid PMO trolls, or if you write these lies for free. Please advise.
You mean like calling people socialists?
RWNJ dudebros are just mad that their wives will vote for Chow.
The guy to whom you replied is the likely candidate, and 5% doesn’t seem like a stretch in pot-friendly Toronto. Won’t get many votes in the ‘burbs, of course.
Folks on the left who have no facts to debate resort to 4 letter words, gutter language and insults. Socialist has more than 4 letters and is quite an acceptable word.
You don’t think racing Lamborghinis with your pals in a gated suburban community is elitist? Um, OK…
And yet, here you are saying you’re basing your vote on a poll. That, for an election some nineteen months away.
I can forgive some cloud talk, but some consistency, please.
Tory is basically a caricature of a rich white guy. That doesn’t appeal to F*** Nation or “Toronto elites” downtown, despite the fact that both of those demos comprise a fair few rich white guys.
On the other hand, I’m betting a fair few seniors who voted Ford in 2010 and can’t stomach a socialist (social democrat if you prefer, but I, a socialist, don’t) will vote Tory. That’s a big voting bloc.
Pfft. Charlie parties until his last gig money runs out, whereas El Fordo has been partying non-stop since he was 15. A month with RoFo, and Charlie would look like Chris Farley: Dead.
“the average canadian is not capable of making a rational decision”…you, being a demanding left wing totalitarian, only aspire to be average.. lol.. go cry to the thought police…again..
Now you understand how rural Ontario feels about Toronto. TO liberals run the show at Queens Park; it is safe to say they are despised by the people in the majority of the province.
I agree. The needs and concerns of rural Ontario are not represented fairly in Ontario.
I didn’t day I was basing my vote on a poll. Where did you get that?
I was just disappointed in the results showing Soknacki so low. He was the only one at the time prior to Tory or Chow entering with some genuine ideas, and people are still looking at the rock stars to save them.
I don’t believe you have the foggiest what “totalitarian” means. Even under Herr Harper, we here in Canada have never seen it.
Why are you Tory sock puppets so melodramatic?
lol..”herr” harper..? paid trolls? it never takes long for the obsessed leftard to make their empty replies.. you couldnt be more insignificant…but without doubt you will try..olivia chow quote “i knew about all of my husbands appointments”…all…she knew about his frequent abuse of oriental sex slaves and apparently was ok with that..
Save the fantasies for *your* next visit to the rub ‘n tug.
quote “it never takes long for the obsessed leftard to make their empty replies”…
So peeps from Toronto are idiots, not smart aka stupid, trashy, adnormal, and not sophisticated? Fuck you lady. You should vote for Olivia Chow because she’s diverse and “caring”, wow what a plan.
Jack Layton ran for Prime Minister even though he knew he was terminal, which would have probably cost the taxpayers another election or Olivia Chow (both bad choices). Rob Ford backs down after finding out he has a tumour. That’s not to say he’s perfect, but he always had good answers to his questions, bullshit or not. The only reason I would never vote for that guy is that he was involved with gangs and a person who was murdered not long after Ford’s crack revelation, a coverup of sorts to make the public forget about Project Brazen and TPS Chief Bill Blair’s crusade against the mayor’s office. Everyone glossed over the fact that Ford may have been involved with a murder and just focused in on the crack aspect because that’s what makes the sensational ink. Bullshit media spin-doctors. Chow is a communist plain and simple, we’re “frough” with her. I’m glad Socknacki backed down, too. What a pussy, skipped a debate to celebrate his mid-life crisis birthday – a weak individual.