Canada’s commercial real estate scene is banking on a $56-billion injection this year
Nationwide return-to-office mandates could spur up to 1.64 million square feet of new office space
As Toronto stares down a flailing housing market, advocates from the commercial real estate side of things are feeling confident: a new report predicts that nationwide investment in the sector could reach $56 billion in 2026. The projection, from commercial real estate services company CBRE Canada, comes on the back of widespread return-to-office mandates.
If investment does reach $56 billion, it would mark the third-highest total in Canadian sales history and an eight per cent boost from the estimated $47 billion of 2025.
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CBRE Canada president and CEO Jon Ramscar predicts a year of competition from both domestic and international investors. “We’re coming off a year of uncertainty, but international capital has already voted in favour of Canadian commercial real estate,” Ramscar said in a news release. “We have seen assets purchased across the country due to our industry’s strong fundamentals and relative stability.” The report notes that Canada is a safe haven for investment, boasting G7-leading growth metrics.
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After two years of high office vacancy rates, which began with the pandemic and largely stuck around after the realization that many office workers’ jobs could be performed remotely, CBRE says the market has stabilized and is “transitioning to a period of sustained growth.” It predicts that Toronto’s vacancy rate will drop to 13.4 per cent from last year’s 15.9 per cent and that new supply will rise to 1.64 million square feet. But the report also notes that there aren’t any “meaningful” new office builds planned for Toronto beyond this year, which has made the market hyper-competitive.
As for industrial real estate, CBRE foresees a tougher slog in 2026 as Ottawa renegotiates CUSMA with an aggressive Trump administration that has frequently called for Canada’s economic collapse.
