Meeting Mr. Right
Anti-Trudeau sentiment has officially breached the GTA. But what does the alternative look like? Twelve prognosticators on what a Pierre Poilievre government could mean for the city
The last time a federal riding in downtown Toronto went Conservative was in 1988—back when acid rain and free trade dominated the news and there was a wild new TV dance party called Electric Circus. Tories Barbara McDougall and David MacDonald were the candidates, and they both lost five years later. Toronto’s Liberal leaning has, in other words, been as predictable as the summer construction on Lake Shore.
So it was surprising when, this past June, the Conservatives clinched the downtown riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s, aloft on a turgid wave of ennui, fatigue and rage toward Justin Trudeau. Current polling suggests that the sentiment is widespread: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been out in front for months, often by a lot and in some surprising demographics. While polls aren’t perfect predictors (hi, 2016 America) and a lot could happen between now and election day, the idea of Prime Minister Poilievre is starting to sound like a real possibility.
Following the political strategist’s playbook to a T, Poilievre has left the specifics of his policies unsaid, playing up the palatable, populist stuff and leaving the nitty gritty of governance to voters’ imaginations. To fill in the blanks, we tapped a dozen of Toronto’s leading political thinkers—ex-politicians, battle-tested bureaucrats, policy wonks and more—to engage in some fact-based forecasting.
The dynamic is complicated: Toronto needs a supportive PM to help the city through its transit, housing and infrastructure woes; the feds need a willing partner in Toronto, the country’s economic hub and biggest driver of innovation. So how would the two work together, and what would a Poilievre government mean for Canada’s biggest city? The answers, in all their hopefulness, cautious optimism, skepticism and terror, ahead.
Scott Reid on intergovernmental relations Cheri DiNovo on 2SLGBTQ+ rights Jaime Watt on housing Shelagh Pizey-Allen on public transit Andrew Thomson on innovation David Miller on climate change John Tory on policy focus Charles Bird on intergovernmental relations Giles Gherson on economic growth Tim Murphy on economic disruption Jamie Ellerton on leadership Kathryn Bakos on climate resilience
A Poilievre government would mean a step back for Toronto–Ottawa relations
By Scott Reid
Principal, Feschuk Reid; former adviser to prime minister Paul Martin
If Pierre Poilievre becomes prime minister, Toronto should brace itself for a dramatic reshaping of its relationship with the federal government. The impact won’t necessarily be felt immediately or through any single policy decision; instead, it will unfold as a fundamental structural change in how Ottawa and Toronto interact. Poilievre’s political philosophy, rooted in small-state, free-market neoliberalism, will guide this transformation, potentially leading to a withdrawal of federal engagement on key issues like transit, infrastructure, child care and housing.
Poilievre has been driven entirely by electoral politics, which is always about political advantage and tactics. He doesn’t bring real-life experiences—he was writing essays on how to be prime minister at 20 years old—and he doesn’t bring the perspective of a business person, a social worker, a teacher or even a lawyer. It’s pure politics. His guiding compass is Reagan/Thatcher-era conservatism, where the government steps back, leaving individuals with more control—and responsibility—over their lives. This perspective will likely lead him to pull back federal involvement in Toronto’s municipal affairs.
What this means for Toronto is a profound disruption of the government-to-government relationship that has evolved over the past two decades. Most recently, under Trudeau, there’s been a notable increase in federal engagement with Toronto on numerous issues, from transit to child care. Poilievre is expected to pivot away from this approach, reverting to a time when there was a more rigid interpretation of constitutional jurisdiction. In practice, this means that the federal government will likely prefer to funnel support through the provinces rather than engage directly with the city. As a result, Toronto may find it more challenging to secure federal funding and support for its priorities.
“He was writing essays on how to be prime minister at 20 years old”
Poilievre’s strategy is not just about philosophy; it’s also about political calculation. He believes that engaging directly with municipal leaders and gatekeepers is politically unnecessary. Instead, he sees his path to success in Toronto through direct engagement with individual voters, bypassing traditional power structures like city councils and boards of trade. He views these entities as obstacles rather than allies, much like how he perceives union leaders when courting union votes. His focus will be on building a voter coalition that aligns with his beliefs, regardless of the stance of local leaders.
In the short term, this shift may not seem earth-shattering. The change will be gradual, with the full impact potentially not felt until a second term, should Poilievre secure one. Over time, though, this approach could significantly weaken Toronto’s influence at the federal level, making it harder for the city to advocate for its needs. Federal MPs representing Toronto may find their voices diminished, and the city could face more bureaucratic hurdles in securing funding and support for local initiatives.
A Poilievre government would likely represent a step back to a time when municipalities had little direct standing with the federal government and relied instead on provincial intermediaries. For a city like Toronto, which has become accustomed to a more direct line to Ottawa, this could mean a slower, more challenging path to addressing its unique transit, housing and infrastructure challenges.
Toronto will need to fight to protect 2SLGBTQ+ rights
By Cheri DiNovo
Minister, Trinity–St. Paul’s United Church; former MPP, Ontario NDP
A Pierre Poilievre government would be a profound step backward for the 2SLGBTQ+ community in Toronto. We could lose the hard-won rights and protections for marginalized populations that we have been fighting to secure for so many years.
Poilievre has consistently skirted around issues of 2SLGBTQ+ rights, and his failure to participate in Pride events speaks volumes about his stance. As an MP, he even voted against same-sex marriage (though he has since said that it would remain legal if he were prime minister). The Conservative Party’s general absence from Pride parades is deeply concerning as it signals a lack of commitment to 2SLGBTQ+ rights and a disregard for the visibility and affirmation that such events provide. More alarmingly, Poilievre has courted the religious right, including factions of the Christian right, which I’ve long fought against both in the United Church and in politics.
Three provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick—have already enacted anti-trans legislation that forces teachers to out gender-diverse children to potentially unsupportive parents. This is a horrifying development, and although many teachers are bravely resisting, the fact remains that these policies are indicative of a broader insidious trend. With a Poilievre government, we risk seeing these harmful policies replicated in Toronto, placing our gender-diverse youth—who already face the highest rates of suicide—at even greater risk.
“Poilievre’s failure to participate in Pride events speaks volumes about his stance”
Our victories, won through decades of struggle, are now under threat. Poilievre’s coalition-building with conservative factions suggests a future where trans rights and broader 2SLGBTQ+ rights could be systematically dismantled. We’ve seen similar regression in the UK and the US, where transphobic legislation is proliferating. Here in Toronto, where we proudly welcome and advocate for all members of 2SLGBTQ+ communities and host one of the largest Pride celebrations in the world, such a government would be a direct affront to our community’s values and achievements.
Will a Poilievre government protect and advance the rights of 2SLGBTQ+ people? Evidence suggests that the answer is a resounding no. Torontonians must recognize this threat and stand firm in defending the progress we have made. Our city’s strength lies in its diversity and inclusivity; we cannot afford to undermine that.
Poilievre would expedite housing—or else
By Jaime Watt
Executive chairman, Navigator; communications strategist for all three levels of government
Let me summarize the complex state of Toronto’s affairs in one word: money. By the city’s own accounting, Toronto faces a $46.5-billion shortfall over the next decade. Not exactly a rosy outlook. It’s made even worse by what is clear to every single Torontonian: the city requires massive structural investments to modernize and improve livability.
No single newly elected politician or government can easily solve a problem like this. What they can do is precisely what Pierre Poilievre has promised to do: shake things up with a new approach that gets the government focused on the priorities that matter most to everyday people.
At the forefront of that approach is housing affordability. Here, Poilievre has laid down the gauntlet. The proposition is simple: federal dollars will be tied to Toronto’s ability to meet housing targets. Cities must increase the number of homes built by 15 per cent each year, which compounds annually so that the target will keep growing as the population increases. If the target is missed, punishment will follow in the form of a percentage of federal dollars withheld. If the target is hit or exceeded, rewards will flow, with greater cash for transit and infrastructure (similar to Ontario’s current approach). In other words, growth will pay for growth.
“Toronto simply cannot afford to miss its housing targets”
Call it a risky, all-or-nothing approach or call it common sense, but the truth—as Poilievre is keenly aware—is this: Toronto simply cannot afford to miss its housing targets. The city’s infrastructure is in desperate need of investment. The TTC is pleading for new money for sorely needed new Line 2 subway cars. Doug Ford’s Conservatives have pledged to pony up, but only if the federal government chips in.
Impossible fiscal situations of this kind lead to fierce fights between different orders of government. And TTC funding would be just one among dozens of other squabbles for a Poilievre government to negotiate.
Toronto is facing a number of significant challenges as well as some very large opportunities beyond the next election. Under a potential new Conservative government, Toronto will play host to a World Cup, will look to undergo a waterfront makeover and will need to fix crumbling infrastructure including everything from water mains to roadways. And from a fiscal standpoint, the federal government will need to be a willing, major player in all. But Poilievre will demand results first. If that’s being the “bad cop,” then this city and country are in desperate need of one.
A Poilievre government could leave the TTC in the slow zone
By Shelagh Pizey-Allen
Executive director, TTCriders
Last summer, Pierre Poilievre released a campaign video with a popular message about more housing and transportation choices. Standing outside his former apartment building near Calgary’s Heritage LRT station, he promised to use federal transit funding as leverage to get Canada’s big cities to build more density near transit.
His comments foreshadowed elements of the Canada Public Transit Fund, a 10-year, $30-billion program that opened for applications in July of 2024. Cities that apply will need to allow high-density housing and eliminate mandatory minimum parking requirements near transit lines. Yet, like the Canada Public Transit Fund, Poilievre’s campaign video was silent about any rules to ensure that new housing near transit would be affordable for the seniors and students he referred to.
The TTC was quick to submit an application to the Canada Public Transit Fund for subway trains that urgently need replacing. But the new fund won’t start flowing until 2026, after the next federal election, which has some wondering what a Poilievre government would mean for future transit projects.
Related: Who broke the TTC? Inside Toronto’s public transit disaster
Mike Harris’s Conservative provincial government—from which Poilievre draws inspiration—was notorious for reversing course in the 1990s on an Eglinton subway that was underway, literally filling in holes that had been excavated. And Harris’s government is perhaps less notorious than it should be for cancelling stable operating funding for the TTC, a major factor in the woeful state of transit today.
“Poilievre’s campaign video was silent about any rules to ensure that new housing near transit would be affordable”
Transit advocacy group TTCriders has asked all federal party leaders and Toronto MPs to sign a pledge to speed up the Canada Public Transit Fund and make it flexible, so cities can use the money to operate more frequent service and slash fares. To date, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, Green leader Elizabeth May and Liberal MPs Shaun Chen and Nate Erskine-Smith have added their names. The federal Conservative party and new Toronto–St. Paul’s MP, Don Stewart, have yet to do so.
In Stewart’s riding, where 61 per cent of residents are renters and 35 per cent use public transit to commute, both sides of the Yonge-University subway line have been plagued by “restricted speed zones” because operating trains at full speed isn’t safe. Chief among the root causes is a lack of investment in maintenance, to the extent that even the TTC’s repair equipment needs repairing.
This is just one of the many expensive issues that the city will be asking a potential Poilievre government to help fix. Whether or not the housing cart gets put before the transit horse, the TTC’s big maintenance backlog means it could be a while before we’re speeding ahead to better transit.
Expect disruption—whether that change is practical or dogmatic remains unclear
By Andrew Thomson
Chief of government relations, University of Toronto; former MLA, Saskatchewan NDP
The recent win in Toronto–St Paul’s and provincial Tory strength in Etobicoke and Scarborough signal that Toronto could be well represented in a Poilievre government. But being well represented isn’t the same as being well regarded.
The question of how the city will fare comes down to which Pierre Poilievre becomes PM: Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde? Do we get a back-to-basics government that is focused on front line services and boosting productivity or a red-meat Republican set on waging culture wars?
If we get the former, Toronto could do quite well. A renewed focus on productivity under the Conservatives could bolster Toronto’s role as an anchor for economic growth, talent attraction, research and industry-driven development.
It could signal that Canada is a strong partner in a newfound continental economy—one based on re-establishing Western competitiveness and fostering growth in Ontario. By better aligning with the US Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, it could help reverse the hollowing out of Ontario’s industrial sector that gained speed after the global financial crisis of 2008. It could open a new chapter of growth not seen since NAFTA took effect.
Leveraging the strength of leading research universities like Waterloo, Western, Queen’s, McMaster and U of T could revitalize the GTHA industrial corridor in new industries like AI, biotech, advanced manufacturing, new materials, clean tech and energy. Pairing them with industrial-minded partners willing to directly invest in Canada could help reposition the GTHA’s ambitions as the go-to safe haven for near-shore investment and talent.
“The question of how the city fares comes down to which Pierre Poilievre becomes PM”
All that seems to align with classic conservative positioning. After all, it was Brian Mulroney who brought in NAFTA. And although Stephen Harper’s government was labelled anti-science, it wasn’t afraid to make big bets and big investments in R&D. Its introduction of the Canada First Research Excellence Fund is a good example of how it laid the foundations for Canada’s entry into leading biomedical research, which helped put U of T and Toronto’s research hospitals in a position to compete with Johns Hopkins, MIT and UCSF.
Change causes disruption. It always does. But change can be practical or dogmatic—and it’s not clear what drives the Tories today.
Undoubtedly, high-profile and local MPs like co-deputy opposition leader Melissa Lantsman and newly elected Don Stewart will lean in to support the region. A Conservative government will also likely have 50 more Ontario MPs on its benches, which strengthens representation and provides perspective.
But the Tories today seem like two parties tenuously taped together—one favouring straightforward solutions to set things right, the other intent on settling scores. In that tension, there is a line that’s easily crossed, which favours supporters at the expense of stakeholders and abandons expertise in favour of expedience.
Get it right and we could see a new partnership that drives productivity, builds infrastructure and creates a common vision for the country. Get it wrong and we will be in protracted fights on everything from immigration to transit.
Poilievre will be extremely unfriendly to cities
By David Miller
Managing director, C40 Centre for Urban Climate Policy and Economy; former mayor of Toronto
Under a conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre, expect the following: on climate, we will again become an international pariah, as we were in 2009 at COP15 in Denmark, where Canada earned multiple Fossil of the Day awards. This implies we’ll have more common ground with countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia and Azerbaijan than with European countries, the US (assuming the Democrats win) and China. There will be predictable consequences, including the worsening of extreme weather events; billions in damages caused by wildfires, flooding and drought; and serious national security and environmental implications as the Northwest Passage becomes open to Russian and Chinese shipping.
In Toronto, where we can expect to see more severe instances of flooding, significant decisions will need to be made with respect to investment in infrastructure—including using our parks, ravines and other green spaces in active ways to help absorb excess water. Based on public positions about budgets, it is extremely unlikely that a Conservative government would introduce programs of the magnitude required—billions of dollars for Toronto alone—to seriously address the issue.
“Expect cuts to long-established programs that even the Harper government didn’t touch”
Under Poilievre, expect no new federal funding for city-based initiatives like public transport, a worsening of the overdose crisis, and partnership only with provincial governments and not municipal governments—despite the fact that most Canadians live in the country’s largest cities. Extreme Conservative rhetoric around almost all things urban suggests a government even more unfriendly to the needs of those who live in cities than the Harper government was. Based on Poilievre’s “gatekeeper” rhetoric (blaming red tape, licensing and so on), expect cuts to long-established programs that even Harper didn’t touch, like the gas tax. Today’s Conservative party has explicitly stated it will claw back funding if a city or town doesn’t meet its housing targets—which are crafted in such a way that few large cities could ever meet them.
Poilievre’s Conservatives do not respect municipalities as independent orders of government with their own democratic mandates, and it will show in their actions should we elect them.
Expect a focus on policies and results over empathy and feelings
By John Tory
Rogers board member; former mayor of Toronto
If the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre prevail in the election to come, “sunny ways” will almost inevitably give way to “we’ve got a job to do.” That shift will be noticeable. A focus on people feeling good will likely be replaced by a desire to have people feel that life is actually getting measurably better.
I hope this doesn’t mean less focus on trying to lift up marginalized communities in Toronto. It is a very conservative principle to make sure everyone has the tools to make their maximum contribution and provide for their families. Eliminating poverty should be more important, not less.
Finding purpose in fixing the economy and getting housing built could very well be a rallying point around which Torontonians can unite. Keeping an incredibly diverse city together is as necessary as it is challenging. Recent world events and political shifts have placed strains on the harmony that has been an important Toronto hallmark.
Conservatives are more likely to try to unite us with policies, ideas and results as opposed to words and empathy. We should hope that works, because this is no time for division or exclusion.
Government housing programs (for which the Liberals get less credit than they should) will continue, but there will be a shift from carrot to stick: some incentives to build will be replaced by sanctions for not building. A premium will be placed on getting government out of the way and letting the private sector do its job.
Reforms to the justice system will help keep our city safe, and we will see faster federal action on things like bail reform, car theft and transit safety—ideally without abandoning much-needed programs that offer support to at-risk youth.
“I don’t think Torontonians will ‘feel the love’ from a Conservative government, but we may find encouragement in a resolute, matter-of-fact focus on getting results”
Hopefully, political rhetoric demonizing those who use drugs will give way to more support for people experiencing mental illness and drug-related issues. It would be great if this led to increases in treatment options, which are sorely lacking in our city right now.
Support for business, innovation and job creation will increase while support for many green programs will diminish—with the likely exception of public transit, where Conservatives actually have a good track record of supporting projects.
The belief that prosperity is the key to a good quality of life will mean less attention and money for addressing historic wrongs and reflecting on our past. Ideally, this won’t mean diminished support for arts and culture.
While Toronto’s diversity will make it challenging to do so, starker lines will be drawn on foreign policy issues, and there will be clearer support for traditional international alliances.
In the end, I don’t think Torontonians will “feel the love” from a Conservative government, but if the government does its job well, we may find encouragement in a resolute, matter-of-fact focus on getting results.
As Toronto’s mayor, I found ways to work effectively with both Liberal and Conservative governments to advance the interests of our city. It can be done. I hope the contribution our city can make to the success of the country will be recognized and that Conservative ambivalence toward and even resentment of Toronto will be placed firmly in the past. After all, our city represents a fantastic economic and social opportunity for all of Canada.
PM–mayor collaboration won’t be a two-way street—at least not yet
By Charles Bird
Principal, Earnscliffe Strategies; former adviser, Queen’s Park and Ottawa
When Chrystia Freeland was appointed federal finance minister in August of 2020, Ontario Premier Doug Ford was effusive in his praise. “I absolutely love Chrystia Freeland,” Ford told reporters. “She’s amazing. I’ll have her back. I’ll help her any way we can.” The two had become close over the previous months, working together during the earliest stages of the pandemic.
Outside of the occasional squabble, the relationship has continued to pay dividends. This has included $3.1 billion in federal funding earmarked for health care in Ontario this past February as well as $1.6 billion for an EV battery plant not far from Toronto, which was announced in May.
The success of any future federal Conservative government in terms of Toronto will depend on its ability to work effectively with other levels of government, notwithstanding perceived ideological differences and partisan tendencies. And many provincial Conservatives know that suggestions of bad blood between Ford and Poilievre are largely overblown.
“The great unknown is what kind of spending cuts a Poilievre government would choose to impose”
While Mayor Olivia Chow comes from the opposite end of the political spectrum, she has already shown a pragmatic streak and a willingness to cooperate with her federal and provincial counterparts that have served her well. Think of Toronto uploading the Don Valley Parkway and the Gardiner Expressway, which could save the city hundreds of millions over the next few years. And this past June, the federal government announced $4.7 billion in funding for Ontario municipalities with the full-throated support of Toronto’s mayor.
No one would be terribly shocked if there was some informal outreach going on between Team Poilievre and folks close to the mayor even now, given what’s at stake for all levels of government. Of course, the great unknown is what kind of spending cuts a Poilievre government would choose to impose, which could sour relations quickly. Both sides will need to avoid vilifying the other and commit to working together—though it remains to be seen whether a Prime Minister Poilievre will be of a similar mind as the leaders of other levels of government.
Poilievre will need Toronto’s economic success
By Giles Gherson
President and CEO, Toronto Region Board of Trade
It’s indisputable that Toronto’s economic well-being plays a huge role in fuelling the country’s prosperity. Which is why the federal government has a permanent and powerful vested interest in building up Toronto’s success. We’re Canada’s golden goose. But we’re now in danger of becoming the frog in the pot; the water’s not yet boiling, but it’s definitely getting too hot for comfort. We’re in need of an economic jolt, and there’s no time to waste. Whichever party forms the government must work collaboratively with the province, the city and our business community to reverse Toronto’s—and Canada’s—damaging and costly competitiveness slide.
While it’s premature to get the full measure of the Conservative party’s policy prescriptions, we’re beginning to get an early picture. Policies that encourage business investment are certainly in the mix, and they’ll be essential to restoring our economic mojo.
In some ways, we’re a victim of our own past success. As a highly sought-after destination for global talent, the GTHA has grown from 4.5 million people to nearly seven million since 2000—a much-needed workforce that we didn’t plan for or build to accommodate.
As a result, our inadequate transit and transportation infrastructure has left us with congested roadways, dragging down our competitiveness by $11-billion annually. We also face an affordability crisis due to a severe housing shortage.
What could a Poilievre government do about this? Governments are currently rushing to play catch-up by investing in our woefully under-built and aging infrastructure. Poilievre says he wants to tie federal funds for transit to greater housing density near stations, which would address two of our region’s biggest challenges and give municipal politicians needed air cover to make those moves. Federal funds for operating public transit also need to be part of the picture. But there’s much more to be done.
“A decade ago, it might have been unfathomable that we’d be poorer than Detroit, but we are”
Last year, our region’s GDP per worker was $124,000 while the average of 11 major US metros was $223,000—a $99,000-per-worker gap. A decade ago, it might have been unfathomable that we’d be poorer than Detroit, but we are—by a whopping $72,000 per worker.
When the provincial Conservatives won in 2018, it wasn’t clear how a Doug Ford government would handle the economy. What we got was a recognition that the underpinnings of the economy were a lot more fragile than people realized, and they’ve made big moves to shore that up.
Poilievre can take a page from the Ford playbook. He wants to deliver good jobs, and the only way to do that is by attacking our productivity challenge head-on to make Canada a more attractive place for business investment and growth.
The Toronto region benefits from our integrated North American economy. But, over the years, governments have added policies and regulations, frustrating businesses on both sides of the border and stifling investment and innovation. With his focus on cutting our mountain of red tape and addressing tax competitiveness, Poilievre would be off to a good start.
Toronto will have to fend for itself, forcing creative solutions to a lack of funding
By Tim Murphy
Chief strategic affairs officer, Aecon; former chief of staff for prime minister Paul Martin
A Poilievre administration could redefine Toronto’s political and economic landscape. First, expect a shift in how government responsibilities are handled. Poilievre’s administration would likely emphasize jurisdictional boundaries, leaving Toronto to manage its own challenges. Consider the Toronto Community Housing Corporation, which received $1.3 billion from Trudeau’s government to maintain asset quality. Under Poilievre, such federal support would diminish, meaning the city would need to rely more on provincial funding or local taxpayers. This financial tightening could strain Toronto’s resources, forcing innovative yet challenging reforms.
In the housing sector, Poilievre’s stance is clear: provinces and municipalities need to streamline their processes. The federal government will likely step back, pushing local governments to tackle gatekeeping issues like housing and infrastructure. This could hasten housing development but also place significant pressure on Toronto’s administrative capabilities.
“A Poilievre government would mean fewer financial transfers to Toronto, which would necessitate a shift toward self-reliance and local reform”
Economic disruption is another anticipated outcome. Poilievre’s vision of a competitive, innovative market may lead to reduced protections for key sectors like finance and telecommunications. For Toronto, the heart of Canada’s financial sector, this could mean increased competition and potential instability. While long-term benefits may include a more dynamic market, the immediate effects could be turbulent, affecting employment and economic stability in the city.
Crime policy under Poilievre could see stronger mandatory minimum sentences for offences such as gun crimes and car thefts. This could lead to higher incarceration rates and further strain on the judicial system. While this may address some public safety concerns, it raises questions about broader social harms.
Ultimately, a Poilievre government would mean fewer financial transfers to Toronto, which would necessitate a shift toward self-reliance and local reform. This transformation would bring both opportunities and significant challenges. Toronto must be prepared to navigate this new landscape with resilience and adaptability.
Poilievre will look to Harris and Harper for inspiration
By Jamie Ellerton
Founding partner and principal, Conaptus Ltd.
Canada is broken.” Pierre Poilievre has been saying it for years, and polls now suggest that Canadians agree. A record number of people are voting with their feet and emigrating from Toronto. Among those still here, many are telling pollsters that they like what Conservatives are offering and want newly elected Toronto–St. Paul’s MP Don Stewart to have more Conservative colleagues from the 416 in the House of Commons.
A Conservative government would likely take inspiration from Mike Harris’s common sense revolution. Expect to see a fast-moving government enacting reforms to boost the economy. Tax policy, paired with reforms of government regulatory processes and service delivery, will be key to Poilievre’s ability to deliver. His combative tone has shown that he welcomes the political fights necessary to advance those reforms.
Poilievre will also take inspiration from Stephen Harper’s approach to building a broad electoral coalition. Many doubted that the new Conservative party would last post-merger in 2003 or whether it could be relevant to Quebec. Harper’s Conservative party became a national political force. It achieved nearly a decade in power and another decade as a strong counter to the Liberal party, with representation from every region of the country.
So what would Prime Minister Poilievre do? Practically, the federal government acts in two ways: policies it directly controls and the tax dollars it distributes. Conservatives will use both to address Toronto’s housing crisis.
Poilievre has been clear that Conservatives want more homes built. Governments need to make it easier and less expensive to build. Not an easy fix for a prime minister: most of the regulatory barriers are controlled by Queen’s Park and city hall. Expect a Poilievre government to ask Premier Ford and Mayor Chow to remove the red tape stalling home-building in exchange for new federal infrastructure spending in Toronto.
“Expect to see a fast-moving government enacting reforms to boost the economy”
In addition to home-building measures, Conservatives are promising to restore order at the immigration department and tie future immigration levels to the country’s ability to house people. Expect fewer Uber Eats deliveries from people on bogus student visas and more immigration to boost capacity in the health care and construction sectors.
The visible increase in homelessness and drug addiction across the city are intertwined. This is a complex, long-term problem that no government has yet solved. Poilievre has shown that he wants a political fight on this issue and has targeted safe-consumption sites. He wants to shift government efforts to focus on treatment and recovery. The details are still in the works, but his messaging suggests that the treatment model Alberta is currently building will inspire it. A new federal addictions recovery program will likely entail federal funding for recovery centres and policy reforms to direct people into them.
Conservatives also promise reforms to the justice system to make bail requirements tougher. To boost other law-and-order initiatives, federal funding for local policing may be used to drive policy prioritization among police forces.
Poilievre talks often about maximizing freedoms and limiting government control. Expect a less-is-more approach to government that seeks to rally public opinion to get other governments to act with him.
Unclear climate policy could make Toronto more vulnerable
By Kathryn Bakos
Managing director, finance and resilience, Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo
Climate change isn’t a distant threat; it’s our current reality. As we confront the urgent and escalating harms of extreme weather, the future of Toronto’s climate resilience is more critical than ever—and it should be top of mind for any government—federal, provincial or municipal. Toronto is already grappling with more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including intense storms and prolonged heat waves. These changes exert pressure on our urban environment, infrastructure and economy, necessitating immediate and effective action.
Toronto is particularly vulnerable due to its dense landscape. The urban heat island effect amplifies the dangers of extreme heat, making our summers increasingly unbearable. At the same time, our aging infrastructure struggles to cope with the intense storms that have become more common. Without significant investments in climate resilience, Toronto risks substantial economic losses—not to mention injuries and deaths.
The real estate sector, a cornerstone of the Canadian economy, is especially at risk. We’re already seeing insurance companies withdrawing from high flood risk areas, rendering around 1.5 million homes across Canada uninsurable and leaving a substantial financial burden on the government and individuals. At present, there are ongoing discussions between the federal government and the insurance industry, specifically with the Insurance Bureau of Canada, to establish a flood insurance program for high-risk areas across the country.
“Without significant investments in climate resilience, Toronto risks substantial economic losses”
Poilievre is known for his fiscally conservative approach, which may initially seem unlikely to prioritize climate resilience. However, it’s crucial to recognize that climate resilience is not just an environmental issue—it’s an economic one with significant potential for cost savings. Investing in resilience measures now will not only help keep our housing market stable and insurable but also prevent the government from bearing high costs when extreme weather strikes, ensuring a more secure economic future for Toronto and Canada. Whether it’s to a Prime Minister Poilievre or to another federal leader, my message will remain the same: climate resilience is good for business.
This story appears in the October 2024 issue of Toronto Life magazine. To subscribe for just $39.99 a year, click here. To purchase single issues, click here.
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