Pants on Fire: Fact-checking the most scorching claims from the Ontario leaders’ debate

Ontarians could be forgiven for feeling a sense of election exhaustion over the past few weeks, particularly since Thursday’s provincial election was called way ahead of schedule as Doug Ford continues his adventures in Captain Canada cosplay south of the border. The premier has justified this early trip to the polls by saying that he needs a strong mandate to fight Donald Trump’s tariff threats—just one of the claims from last week’s leaders’ debate that warrants further scrutiny. With that in mind, we present our Ontario election fact check, an issue-specific examination of the most contentious assertions made onstage, who said what and whose pants are on fire.

“It’s not fair that Mr. Ford has handed out $200 cheques to millionaires and billionaires like Galen Weston, the guy gouging you at the grocery store, when so many people can’t afford to even pay for groceries.”

Who said it? Green Party leader Mike Schreiner

How come? The comments were part of a screed about how, under Ford’s PC government, the rich have continued to get richer while regular people are struggling. Before he brought Galen Weston Jr. into the fray, Schreiner noted that few people earning minimum wage in Ontario can afford to pay rent here and that food bank usage is up 78 per cent in the past two years.

Whose pants are on fire? This is more a case of seizing on a technicality to land a burn, according to Peter Graefe, a political science and public policy expert at McMaster University. “Ford chose a very blunt instrument to distribute funds to the people of Ontario,” he says, so unless Loblaw’s sweater-vested scion has made a recent move, “he would have gotten the same cheque everyone else did, including your social assistance recipient, your taxi driver, your middle-class lawyer.” Graefe sees the $200 cheques as a stunt, but in the context of the debate, Ford’s opponents could have used it as stronger ammunition. “I think the better question would have been not ‘Why did you give one to Galen Weston?' but ‘Why are you giving out money to anyone when your government is in deficit?'” Related: Who earns what—the stories behind Toronto’s top salaries

“If I get a strong mandate from the people of Ontario…I will fight against Donald Trump like you’ve never seen before.”

Who said it? Doug Ford

How come? The debate opened by asking each candidate what made them the best leader to respond to Trump’s tariff threats. That makes sense in some ways—tariffs present a massive economic threat to all Canadian provinces and are certainly a hot issue. But it’s also a bit out of place—this is a provincial election, and responding to Trump’s tariff threats is a federal responsibility. At any rate, Ford’s campaign has put tariffs front and centre, so of course he went all in.

Whose pants are on fire? This one’s a five-alarm trouser inferno from Ford, perhaps motivated by the desire to boost his personal brand. “Ford has been polling lower than his party for some time now, but on this tariff issue he’s polling really well. He does a lot better talking about this issue than talking about other things,” Graefe says, before calling out the overall “high degree of baloney.”

“Tariffs are a foreign-affairs and foreign-relations issue,” he says. “The Americans will want to speak with nation states, not provincial premiers.” In other words, Trump may love a good slogan baseball cap, but he’s still not calling on Ford. As for the need for a “strong mandate,” Graefe calls this “a bit of a red herring.” Ford already has a strong mandate—it’s called a majority government. Related: “Trump is not clearing his schedule to have lunch with Dougie”—Bonnie Crombie isn’t done coming after Doug Ford

“No government in history has invested more in health care—over $30 billion. We ended up going out there and attracting 15,000 new doctors, 100,000 new nurses” and “we’re leading the country right now at 90 per cent of people connected to primary care.”

Who said it? Doug Ford

How come? Health care and the cost of living are the top two issues for Ontario voters, so of course the candidates came ready to land their blows. Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie highlighted how 2.5 million Ontarians currently don’t have a family doctor. That’s not a great stat in terms of bolstering Ford’s record, so it makes sense that he fought back with a whack of statistics.

Whose pants are on fire? Ford had better reach for an extinguisher here, according to Canada’s biggest nurse’s union, which says his comments were “misleading” and “baffling.” The claim about hiring 100,000 new nurses neglected the caveat that, for every 10 nurses hired, six are leaving the job. As for the claim that 90 per cent of Ontarians are connected to primary care, doctors’ groups have disputed this stat, and since 2.5 million Ontarians don’t have a family doctor in a province of just over 16 million people, basic math has their back.

Zooming out, we know that the current government has actually spent less per capita on health care than all other provinces. The number of Ontarians without a family doctor has nearly doubled during Ford’s time in office. And just yesterday, the president of the Ontario Hospitals Union called out $800 million in underfunding. “So much for ending hallway medicine,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). So maybe $30 billion isn’t as impressive as it sounds. “The numbers don’t necessarily provide a sense that Ford’s health-care record is a good one. You can spend more money, but if it’s less than the rate of inflation, that’s a reduction in quality,” says Graefe, adding that numbers are one way of conveying information, but images—“like the lineup of people waiting for a doctor in Branford”—often leave a more lasting impression. Related: Ontario’s health care system is in chaos, and these doctors and patients are fed up

“Look outside the door…there are more cranes going up in Toronto, right in your own backyard, than in New York, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle and a few other cities combined. They’re being built up, but you know what we need to do? We need to cut the red tape.”

Who said it? Doug Ford

How come? On the topic of the housing crisis, Crombie was quick to mention that the Conservatives’ approach to home-building has Ontario lagging behind: “Alberta, BC, Quebec—they are eating our lunch.” Ford countered by highlighting the $2 billion his party has earmarked for housing infrastructure across the province, which “will allow for one million new homes.” Soon afterward, NDP leader Marit Stiles jumped in, asking, “Where is the housing, Doug?” which prompted the premiere to suggest she take a look outside.

Whose pants are on fire? According to the 2024 Crane Index, Toronto does in fact top the list of cities named by Ford, with 83 of those bad boys in the sky, 43 of which are being used to construct residential units. It’s unclear whether the number of cranes in Toronto exceeds the cumulative total of the various cities the premier listed, but perhaps the more important considerations here are not crane-related at all. Ontario’s housing “starts” (i.e., breaking ground on new housing) have tanked by 25,000 since 2021. “New housing was a primary promise during the last election, and the rates have not been there,” says Graefe.

The Ford government confirmed as much in its fall 2024 economic statement, revealing that the province won’t hit its housing targets (1.5 million new homes by 2031) until at least 2027. Ford has pointed to hurdles like increased interest rates and supply-chain delays, but the other provinces are up against the same issues and do indeed appear to be lunching on Ontario’s mac and cheese from a housing perspective.

“The tunnel is a fantasy that would bankrupt our province.”

Who said it? Bonnie Crombie

How come? This hit job on Ford’s proposed tunnel under the 401 happened during a showdown on transportation investment. Guest moderator Colin D’Mello asked Ford why taxpayers should support his tunnel project, which has not seen a feasibility study, and Ford largely deflected. Enter Crombie, who made her anti-tunnel sentiments clear: “Doug, Doug, Doug—a fantasy tunnel. How dumb is that?”

Whose pants are on fire? Would it bankrupt the province? No. But it’s hard to come down too hard on Crombie for her hyperbole given the attached price tag (estimated to hit nearly $100 billion) and the teeny-tiny fact that multiple transit experts say a tunnel won’t help alleviate traffic woes. Okay, so then why double down on a subterranean fever dream? “Ford has done very well with the car-dependent suburbs of the GTA,” says Graefe. These are voters who can’t envision their current congestion woes solved by transit (much less bike lanes), no matter how much gets invested there. So Ford is their guy. “To be seen as a candidate who recognizes the congestion problem and is proposing a big solution, even if it’s not a credible one, makes him attractive.”

Related: “The good old days of driving downtown without hassle are over”—Meet Roger Browne, Toronto’s director of traffic management

“Do you know what killed more jobs than anything? The carbon tax. The Queen of the Carbon Tax, Bonnie Crombie.”

Who said it? Doug Ford

How come? The question was actually “How would you reduce emissions?” But, to no one’s surprise, Ford made a sudden pivot. He’s been branding Crombie as a bestie of the carbon tax (and Justin Trudeau) from the moment she took over as Ontario Liberal leader. That’s probably because he knows that Crombie’s platform as a fiscal conservative has the potential to resonate with Red Tories, and the word carbon is political-centrist poison.

Whose pants are on fire? The carbon tax (and rebate!) program is a federal policy, but it does have provincial implications in that provinces can either come up with their own carbon policies or use the federal model. Of course, this may all be moot depending on who wins the upcoming federal election, but either way, calling Crombie carbon royalty is not accurate. Last year (and again on debate night), Crombie made it clear that a consumer carbon tax was off the table. Instead, the provincial Libs would strike a panel of experts to offer advice on carbon policy.

Regarding the carbon tax and job losses, Graefe sees this as “a more rhetorical claim. It’s not like we’ve seen a large employer saying they’re leaving the province based on the carbon tax.” He adds that the topic “taps into conspiratorial thinking: that carbon taxes are imposed by globalists who don’t understand the real world and real people.” But, perhaps most importantly for Ford, getting caught up in his opponent’s carbon stance meant “not having to talk about climate change.”