A new poll puts Rob Ford decisively in third place
Here’s the thing about polling before an election: if you ask two pollsters to predict the outcome, you’re going to get two different answers. In contrast to last week’s Forum poll, which described a virtual dead heat between Olivia Chow, John Tory and Rob Ford, a new survey by Maple Leaf Strategies, a lobbying firm with conservative ties, gives Tory a healthy lead and puts Ford in the back. By Maple Leaf’s reckoning, Tory takes 30 per cent of the total vote, Chow gets 26 per cent and Ford trails with 23 per cent. (Among decided voters, the percentages are 35, 31 and 27, respectively.)
Since the numbers come from an unabashedly conservative pollster, it’s wise to approach them with some skepticism. Polls can be more effective at swaying public opinion than measuring it, and political operatives know it. Even so, this is an interesting data point, and bad news for the mayor, who has by all accounts been struggling to increase his vote share since the start of the campaign. Maple Leaf finds his remaining support to be strongest in Scarborough, where he polled at 35 per cent.
![](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://torontolife.com/city/new-poll-puts-rob-ford-decisively-third-place/&title=A new poll puts Rob Ford decisively in third place&picture=https://torontolife.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/john-tory-featured.jpg&description=[caption id="attachment_284882" align="alignnone" width="656"] (Image: John Tory/Facebook)[/caption]
Here's the thing about polling before an election: if you ask two pollsters to predict the outcome, you're going to get two different answers. In contrast to last week's Forum poll, which described a virtual dead heat between Olivia Chow, John Tory and Rob Ford, a new survey by Maple Leaf Strategies, a lobbying firm with conservative ties, gives Tory a healthy lead and puts Ford in the back. By Maple Leaf's reckoning, Tory takes 30 per cent of the total vote, Chow gets 26 per cent and Ford trails with 23 per cent. (Among decided voters, the percentages are 35, 31 and 27, respectively.)
Since the numbers come from an unabashedly conservative pollster, it's wise to approach them with some skepticism. Polls can be more effective at swaying public opinion than measuring it, and political operatives know it. Even so, this is an interesting data point, and bad news for the mayor, who has by all accounts been struggling to increase his vote share since the start of the campaign. Maple Leaf finds his remaining support to be strongest in Scarborough, where he polled at 35 per cent.){kind=link}
Dimitri Pantazopoulos told me on twitter that the poll was 800 people, randomly selected from land lines. Land lines? That skews your demographic out the window.
Believe it or not, cell phone users, younger generation, tend to vote less than older generation, those that use landlines exclusively.
“Likely voter models” have been failing all over Canada, while traditional “representative demographic” models have remained fairly accurate.
Hope Robs name is history after October.
1. Ford polls first in Scarborough? Time to cut it loose, break up the mega-city, run Toronto out of Toronto, where Ford is polling 12%. Let Scarborough and the other suberias enjoy their culture of Tim Horton’s and mega-cinemas. Shame on Scarbville forever for trading votes for a lam-o unnecessary subway. 2. A shame the vote isn’t limited to women, for then Chow would be win in a landslide. 3. As it is, Chow polling a few percentage points above Ford, and presumably some other potted plants in the race. Time for her to drop out.
Hands up everyone who remembers any polls predicting a Wynne majority.
[crickets]
Polls don’t mean shit any more.
That Ford even still commands the number he does is reason for Toronto to hang its head in shame. We have some seriously fu**ed up people in this city.
It is refreshing that a calm and cool Tory is on top of a sh#t show like Ford. Toronto, your creditability might be coming back.
Ford Nation! Daddy is hanging his head! You don’t like him anymore!
I hope Ford loses, and I don’t even live in the GTA.
Yes, especially his LAST name.
Here’s to a Ford-Free Toronto!!!