Wait—maybe Tim Hudak won’t win a majority, after all

This is why pre-election polls are tricky. Earlier this week, we found out that a survey conducted by Ipsos Reid had given a slight edge to the Tories in next month’s provincial election. That was good news for Tim Hudak, who seemed to be on his way to forming a majority government. Today, the Star reports on a Forum research poll that comes to a very different conclusion. It found that support for the Liberal party is growing, and that Kathleen Wynne, riding a wave of disgust with Hudak’s recently announced plan to cut 100,000 public-sector jobs, could end up with a 68-seat majority in June. The poll gives the Liberals 38-per-cent popular support, with the Conservatives at 35 per cent and the NDP at 21 per cent.

ThreeHundredEight.com, a website that tracks Canadian political polls, has revised its running projection of the provincial election’s outcome, putting the Tories and the Liberals in a virtual dead heat. The Liberals have a slight advantage in terms of projected seat count, but ThreeHundredEight’s numbers suggest that the most likely outcome for the party, at this point, is another minority government. As always, though, the only perfectly accurate poll is the one taken on election day.