We speculate about how the vote will break down when the Jarvis bike lanes go in front of council next month

From Elliott’s “Ford For Toronto” blog:

Making a bunch of assumptions based on current voting patterns — along with some statements councillors have made since this issue resurfaced, e.g. Mary-Margaret McMahon’s comment on Twitter –, council currently breaks down with 17 in favour of keeping the Jarvis lanes, 15 opposed and 13 unknown votes. Six of the uncommitted councillors need to break for maintaining the status quo for the Jarvis lanes to win the day.

Of the unknowns, Councillors Mammoliti, Nunziata, Kelly, Palacio & Grimes are likely to flip-flop on their earlier position and support the removal of the lanes. It’s hypocritical and barely justifiable, but that won’t be enough to stop them.

Of the remaining eight, the best bets for cycling advocates are Councillors Matlow, Bailão, Colle, Moeser, Robinson and Di Giorgio.

Admittedly, Elliott’s numbers are highly speculative; the only thing we know for certain is that this vote is going to be intensely tight. And given that of the six councillors Elliott identifies as potential cycling advocates, we’d bet only half of those might actually vote to save the bike lanes when push comes to shove. That leaves the pro-Jarvis forces outnumbered. Plus, we expect Ford to whip the vote pretty heavily on this one, especially given the emails he’s been sending out to cyclists to explain his stance (drivers face a short delay—the problem is actually the lack of a left turn on Gerrard Street, but, hey, no matter—the bike lanes must go!).

In short, while the numbers show some cause for cyclists to remain optimistic—and we expect latte-swilling, two-wheel advocates to fight hard for Jarvis—lately Canadian politics have made number crunchers look a touch sheepish when the actual votes come in.

• City Council Scorecard: How to save the Jarvis bike lanes [Ford For Toronto]