Brad Bradford plans to run for mayor. Could he beat Olivia Chow?

The most glaringly obvious cat in municipal politics is out of the bag as Brad Bradford announces his plans to run in the 2026 mayoral election next October. It’s unsurprising given that the Beaches–East York city councillor has been doing the whole “tell me you’re running for mayor without telling me you’re running for mayor” thing for the past several months, staging press conferences, standing behind signs and even putting out a slogan: Get Toronto Moving. Speaking to CP24 Thursday morning, Bradford invoked key Toronto bogeymen: safety, traffic and property taxes. His plan to get “back to basics” lacks detail, but it’s certainly a vibe.

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If you’re wondering, Where do I know that guy from again?, Bradford was a candidate in the last mayoral election. He came eighth overall, with two per cent of the vote, but says he has learned a lot in the interim by speaking with Canadians who are dissatisfied with the current leadership.

Municipal politics doesn’t have parties and thus no official opposition, but unofficially, Bradford has acted the part, taking on Mayor Olivia Chow at every turn. According to the Toronto Star, he has been rallying support for his campaign behind the scenes, positioning himself as the centre-right candidate who could beat Chow.

Is he that candidate?

There certainly seems to be a strong voting bloc looking for a municipal Mark Carney type. That demographic also has a tendency to paint Chow, a lifelong NDPer and unapologetic progressive, as the Queen of Woke. A recent Forum Research poll showed that Bradford and Chow would be neck and neck in a two-horse race. But, in the event that other right-of-centre candidates come into play, Chow’s chances stay the same while Bradford’s plummet by half.

Related: John Tory may run for mayor again. The question on everyone’s minds: Why?

In particular, a run by former mayor John Tory would be ruinous for Bradford: the same polling showed that, if a race were held “today” (in the poll’s case, early September), the split would be 32 per cent for Chow, 30 per cent for Tory and 18 per cent for Bradford.

Whether Tory will run remains unclear. Last month, he told reporters that he was considering it but wasn’t in a rush to decide given that the election is still more than a year away—which makes Bradford look a little thirsty. But maybe that’s the point: drum up support and build name recognition before the big kids arrive at the dance.