Newspapers jump on sketchy mayoral race poll showing Rob Ford in the lead
It’s been a while since a major voter intention poll was put out for Toronto’s mayoral race—the last one, confirming that George Smitherman and Rob Ford were in a statistical tie, came out two months ago—so we can understand that papers are desperate for any scrap of hard data. Indeed, when a new poll from a little-known U.S. firm came out yesterday, clamshell-watchers pounced.
The numbers are surprising: Ford leads at 37.6 per cent, Smitherman has just under at 28.7 per cent, followed by Joe Pantalone, Sarah Thomson, and Rocco Rossi. (Rossi’s worst performance in a poll so far, to our knowledge.) Compared to a previous Pollstra results, Ford is the only candidate who’s improved his numbers since June. The idea that Ford is the only candidate to benefit from the departure of Giorgio Mammoliti and re-re-departure of John Tory is questionable, to say the least.
So if cynics are ready to call shenanigans, they’re not alone: but the head of Pollstra told the CBC that the client is a non-partisan public research group, not the Ford campaign. Some papers seem to be reconsidering accepting the survey at face value: a Toronto Star story on the Web yesterday carried the headline “Ford surges in the polls, but faces a backlash” but is now titled “Miller slams ‘irresponsible’ Ford” and most of the polling references have been removed.
It’s progress of a sort: the last time the city’s reporters got this excited by a questionable poll was the fictional one that existed only in the fevered minds of rumour mongers. But even if this poll is an outlier whose numbers don’t make a lot of sense, at least it exists. We’ll be waiting for the next Nanos survey, ourselves.
• Ford widens lead in Toronto mayoral race: poll [CBC News]
• Do the numbers add up? [Global TV]
• Ford gains momentum in new poll [Toronto Sun]
Somehow, had the two frontrunners been reversed in this poll, I expect the bourgeois media wouldn’t have batted an eyelash.
If Ford wins on Oct. 25, I predict the headline on Oct. 26 edition of the Star will be “Smitherman finishes strong second: Slams Ford for remarks made at 1987 prom”
Ford doesn’t seem to have any talents except bellowing. It is a mistake to develop hysteria over one lousy poll. I hope that Ford doesn’t become one lousy mayor.
City Hall is about to learn that there might be something north of Bloor street….
Was listening to John Tory show yesterday where there is a roundtable of journalists from the three major newspapers. Apparently a new poll coming out that shows Ford even further ahead now–and a month to go to the election, a massive lead— far greater than the last poll. Remember those above Eglinton Avenue in Toronto don’t give a damn about streetcars. Toronto is not just about the Bloor Street crowd, and although other candidates have tried to capitlize on the anger vote–they’ve failed. The only one (with the exception of Ford on the right, who has stayed the course is Pantalone on the left. The others shift gears all the time, trying to woo votes–some of them from Ford supporters and possible Ford supporters.