Tim Hudak may win a majority, a new poll analysis shows
Despite some PR hiccups, it appears that the lead-up to next month’s provincial election has been relatively kind to Tim Hudak. A new analysis by ThreeHundredEight.com, an election-tracking website run by political reporter Éric Grenier, gives Hudak’s PC party a high probability of winning a majority when voters go to the polls.
Using data on the preferences of likely voters (as opposed to eligible voters), drawn from an Ipsos Reid survey that was released on Friday, Grenier projects that the Progressive Conservatives will win around 39.6 per cent of the vote, which he believes may translate into 55 seats in the provincial legislature. Only 54 seats are needed for a majority. In Grenier’s analysis, the Liberals and the NDP would split the remainder, winning 28 and 24 seats, respectively.
Plenty could change before June 12, but, considering the Liberal party’s scandal-wracked decline over the past three years, it wouldn’t be surprising if Hudak’s name ended up on the premier’s office door.