New poll puts Chow, Tory and Ford in a virtual tie
With about three months to go until election day, a new poll by Forum Research suggests that the mayoral race no longer has a clear frontrunner. Because of some apparent erosion in voter support for Olivia Chow, she, John Tory and Rob Ford all pulled roughly equal numbers in the July 21 phone survey, which canvassed 1063 Toronto residents.
Chow still has the narrowest of leads, with 29 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote for her out of the five major mayoral candidates. Tory has 28 per cent, and Ford trails with 27. The poll’s margin of error is three per cent, though, so for practical purposes those three numbers are pretty much indistinguishable. Chow is the only candidate whose fortunes have changed significantly. By Forum’s reckoning, she had been the favourite, with support levels hovering between 33 and 38 per cent since mid-March. Likewise, a recent Nanos poll put her at around 33 per cent (although the same poll put Tory far in the lead, with 39 per cent, which contradicts Forum’s numbers).
Even if Chow’s lost support isn’t directly helping Ford (as it most likely never would), he still stands to benefit from any weakness of hers. A vote split among Chow and the other non-Ford candidates could allow the mayor to win reelection with far fewer votes than he received in 2010. Strategic voting—where voters throw support behind a second-choice candidate to prevent someone they hate from winning—could pick up as election day approaches, though. Because, let’s face it, few incumbents have ever been more worth strategizing against than the current one.
![](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://torontolife.com/city/new-poll-puts-chow-tory-ford-virtual-tie/&title=New poll puts Chow, Tory and Ford in a virtual tie&picture=https://torontolife.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/chow-tory-ford-polls-624x3951.jpg&description=[caption id="attachment_283465" align="alignnone" width="624"] (Image: Chow: Olivia Chow/Facebook; Tory: Ontario Chamber of Commerce; Ford: Christopher Drost)[/caption]
With about three months to go until election day, a new poll by Forum Research suggests that the mayoral race no longer has a clear frontrunner. Because of some apparent erosion in voter support for Olivia Chow, she, John Tory and Rob Ford all pulled roughly equal numbers in the July 21 phone survey, which canvassed 1063 Toronto residents.
Chow still has the narrowest of leads, with 29 per cent of respondents saying they'd vote for her out of the five major mayoral candidates. Tory has 28 per cent, and Ford trails with 27. The poll's margin of error is three per cent, though, so for practical purposes those three numbers are pretty much indistinguishable. Chow is the only candidate whose fortunes have changed significantly. By Forum's reckoning, she had been the favourite, with support levels hovering between 33 and 38 per cent since mid-March. Likewise, a recent Nanos poll put her at around 33 per cent (although the same poll put Tory far in the lead, with 39 per cent, which contradicts Forum's numbers).
Even if Chow's lost support isn't directly helping Ford (as it most likely never would), he still stands to benefit from any weakness of hers. A vote split among Chow and the other non-Ford candidates could allow the mayor to win reelection with far fewer votes than he received in 2010. Strategic voting—where voters throw support behind a second-choice candidate to prevent someone they hate from winning—could pick up as election day approaches, though. Because, let's face it, few incumbents have ever been more worth strategizing against than the current one.){kind=link}
I hope the people voting for Ford know what they are signing up for. I voted for him and in the last few years my area has become a hub of organized crime and violence. If I do the math, voting for him has cost me thousands of dollars in depressed property value.
I contacted Karen, Olivia and John’s campaigns about their plan to fight crime. Though I didn’t get a great answer, Olivia and John actually replied and agreed with me. Karen didn’t bother getting back.
I’m voting for Ford. Our crime rate has gone way down.
What do you mean by “our” crime rate?
“Those people” from Ford Nation.
David Socknaki should be our mayor..
.
That Mayor Blob has any support at all is a sad reflection of the ignorance of far too large a segment of the Toronto population.
Just what redeeming qualities does this 27% find in a; chronic lying, wife beating, gang banging, diet failing, drunk driving, blow harding, crack smoking, hooker patronizing, university failing, vote buying, extortion ordering, sexual harassing, race baiting, all around loser ?
Hard to fathom.
.
I’m living next a drug dealer who during Ford rule has grown enough to export drugs to the USA. Crime rate report is misleading. First of all it’s reporting crime actually REPORTED. How many people like me know about criminals but have lost trust in the police? Secondly, the report says police investigation went DOWN. So no kidding the “crime rate” is down. If people don’t report crime or police doesn’t investigate it, “crime rate” will go down. This is a nice fix.
Ford is a sore loser, who doesn’t know how yo win.
I am so depressed: never in my wildest nightmares did I see Rob Ford having any real support… there simply can’t be a logical, rational reason people want him to represent this city… I keep thinking that between everything he and his brother have done and said… it would be the ‘final straw’ but somehow no matter how low they go… voters go lower… I just don’t understand it. There are just so many, many reasons Rob Ford should be rejected, ignored, fired… arrested… and yet he still has that much support… HOW? WHO? WHY?
Ford is a do-noithing know-noithing, He poses at leadership without any of the skills needed. His nephew has the same quality of ignorance.
Really want to know why Ford has the support he does? The reason is that people in the suburbs are fed up with the know it all, holier than though attitudes of people from downtown who are self-centered and couldn’t care less about them. The other reason is that they know that most City Councillors are just as troubled as Ford is, but they haven’t had TV cameras, biased press, and too political police chiefs putting them under a microscope. Fact is this City is corrupt to the core. People are fed up with patronizing well paid City bureaucrats who have forgotten the meaning of public service, who think they own the parks, the streets, and everything else, and who believe that they can dictate to, and not have to listen to the people who pay their salaries. Ford’s message resonates with ordinary people because they are tired of having to foot the bill, while being talked down to, patronized, and disrespected. They are fed up with politicians in general, the news media, and the downtown establishment. That’s why they support Rob Ford. He returns his calls, comes out to try to help, and actually listens to people. They also support him because all of the above hate him. It’s the old story. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Sad that some have not been able to figure that out. Guess they aren’t as smart as they seem to think they are.
David Soknaki should give it up. No one is going to vote for him.
How well you make the point to people who support Ford. Mayor Blob? Nice. Very respectful. Bet you would love people to call you names. Once again we have the patronizing attitude that anyone who does not share your views is ignorant. Hate to tell you, but that in itself is a sign of your ignorance. if you bothered to talk to the people who support him, which I doubt you would ever lower yourself to do, you might hear some very good reasons why they support him. Hard to fathom? What’s hard to fathom is how people like you keep up your attacks. Don’t you know that is the very thing that is annoying people and causing them to stand by Ford? Maybe they know on a personal level what it is like to be attacked by people like you.
Key words – “though I didn’t get a great answer”. Has it occurred to you that crime in your area is up because maybe the current police chief has refused to modernize the force to deal with things like this? Why are you blaming Ford for a problem caused by police leadership? Have you tried calling Ford’s office? You might actually get a call back and an intelligent answer.
Wait for it friend. He may have a lot more support than you give him credit for.
And you, I am sure, have held public office and consider yourself an expert on these things. Have you even met or spoken to his nephew? Yeah, didn’t think so. Uninformed opinion is such a wonderful thing.
The only people who are going to vote for him are the people who are going to vote for him. Mayor Nenshi was in a similar place with even less time before the election.
Something is better than nothing. At the very least, they cared about my situation and agreed to work on the issue if elected. What I didn’t get was a concrete plan which is why I said I didn’t get a great answer.
Why have I not contacted Ford? I’ll tell you why. I’ve talked to the dealer (who btw has offered me to help in the business) and he loves Rob Ford. Ditto for his druggie buddies. And here you are advising me to contact the guy they love? Nevermind the overwhelming proof we have of his connections to gangs, drug lords and whatnot.
I criticize that incompetent chief Bill Blair just as much as I criticize Rob Ford. They are both incompetent and unfit for their positions.