Preville on Politics

Flaherty vs. McGuinty: Top Five Theories

Posted on March 25, 2008 by Philip Preville

Why is Jim Flaherty going out of his way to pick a political fight with Dalton McGuinty over Ontario’s business tax rate? It’s anybody’s guess, and the guessing is getting good. Let’s run down the top five.

1. There is genuine philosophical disagreement between the Harper-Flaherty Conservatives and the McGuinty-Duncan Liberals over how best to deal with a floundering economy: cut taxes or target spending.
     • Likelihood that this guess reflects the truth: very high.
     • Likelihood that this guess is the motivating factor for the fight: very low.
This is no longer a parlour-room spat. Something more than philosophy must be at stake (which is what makes the guessing so intriguing).

2. Jim Flaherty is undermining John Tory, encouraging a continued rank-and-file revolt against the Ontario PC Leader, setting himself up as the party’s white-knight saviour.
     • Truth likelihood: fair to middling.
     • Motivating-factor likelihood: low.
If this is the reason Flaherty’s kicking up such a fuss, his timing is way off. The party missed its chance to dump Tory at its convention one month ago. Besides, it’s poor political form to appear to be actively seeking the throne.

3. Jim Flaherty is helping out Ontario PC Leader John Tory, who does not have a seat at Queen’s Park, by leading the charge against McGuinty for a little while.
     • Truth likelihood: extremely low.
     • Motivating-factor likelihood: even lower.
But it’s kinda fun to pretend, for just a minute, that Flaherty’s a real nice guy.

4. Dalton McGuinty is helping out Stéphane Dion by making the Conservatives look bad in Ontario, the better to preserve Liberal support in the province for the next federal election.
     • Truth likelihood: moderate to high.
     • Motivating-factor likelihood: moderate.
Everyone appears to have forgotten that it’s McGuinty who started this fight by poking at Flaherty in advance of the federal budget last month; Flaherty’s merely returning the courtesy. Election positioning is definitely part of the game here, but it feels like there’s still more to it than that.

5. Both McGuinty and Flaherty, having looked over the economic projections, know that the bottom is about to fall out of the economy, which means voters are about to get really, really angry, and they are ducking for cover while blaming each other for a problem that hasn’t quite materialized yet.
     • Truth likelihood: moderate to high, depending on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist.
     • Motivating-factor likelihood: pretty high no matter what.
These days, nothing is more unsettling than reading the economic forecasts of financial institutions, whose world is shrinking fast. A story in this morning’s Star quotes a TD Bank forecast that indicates that the bank has lowered its economic growth estimates for the province to a measly 0.5 per cent and claims that “There’s a significant risk that Ontario will experience a mild recession.” Sounds to me like a nice way of saying that a recession is a sure bet. I want answers to these follow-up questions: What exactly is a “mild” recession? And what’s the risk of a recession that isn’t mild? To judge by politicians’ behaviour, it’s getting higher all the time.

Comments

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RustyB March 25, 2008 at 12:17 p.m.

I would have no problem with Flaherty sticking his nose in Ontario provincial budget formulation if he did the same for every other province in the country.
He hasn't and he won't. If he treated Quebec as he is Ontario there would be an uproar of huge proportions ...
this unfortunity is one of many snubs that the Harper government has thrown our way....

Pep1 March 25, 2008 at 12:18 p.m.

I tend to think that Ontarians are going to wake and realize the terrible deal we get from Ottawa. In the TD report (that is mentioned above) states that $20-billion/4% of our province's GDP is taken out of the province by the federal government. I was also surprised to learn that Ontario spends less per capita (on a provincial level) than every other province ($6,400/Ontarian versus $7,800/national average).

http://www.taxpayer.com/pdf/Per_Capita_S...

jonnygofigger March 25, 2008 at 1:25 p.m.

Pep1 says ontario gets a terrible deal from ottawa ($20 billion)

alberta gets to donate $16 Billion and has only 1/5th of ontarios' population...

gofigger.

Philip Preville March 25, 2008 at 4:44 p.m.

Or here's a sixth theory:

http://forums.macleans.ca/advansis/?mod=...

Adam C-F March 27, 2008 at 12:34 p.m.

If I can be so bold as to add a seventh theory, I would offer that this is a Mike Harris-style game of electoral math.

The Harris-led PCPO trademark was a distinct divide and conquer approach to everything, especially elections. Every issue was crafted into a wedge that would win enough support in enough constituencies to win majority governments. The conflict Harris always played on was rural/suburban vs. urban.

Harper is taking the same approach with Ontario vs. Canada. The PM knows that hammering Ontario will pay electoral dividends outside Ontario and that the CPC will continue to see success in Ontario's staunchly blue ridings, like Flaherty's.

If this divide and conquer strategy is played right, it could well end up in a majority government for Harper's Conservatives and even further exemplify how under-represented urban Canadians are in parliament.

So I see this and avoiding blame for the economy as the two most likely motives behind these recent fireworks.

Gas prices April 10, 2008 at 6:10 a.m.

Gas prices are hurting consumers and businesses. The Finance Minister of Canada should pick a battle with the oil giants and lower the the high taxes on gas.


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Philip Preville

Veteran freelance writer Philip Preville lived much of his life in Montreal and Edmonton before he was lured, like so many Torontonians before him, by the promise of more work and a better living. A National Magazine Award winner and former Canadian Journalism Fellow at the University of Toronto’s Massey College, Preville writes Toronto Life’s politics column. He lives with his wife and one-year-old son in Riverdale, just close enough to the Don Valley Parkway that he can hear it when he steps outside his house—but just far enough away that it doesn’t keep him awake at night. On his office wall hangs a 1938–39 press pass belonging to his grandfather, Elias Gannon, who wrote for the Montreal Star.


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